Sunday, January 21, 2018

MY OFFICIAL 2017 OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS...! (LAWYER'S NOTE: Fingers might be crossed)



Every year, I go through the traditional process of trying to make accurate Oscar nomination predictions, usually I just do this on my blog, but this year, I'm trying to get this done in order for it to be re-posted on "Age of the Nerd", so this is gonna be a little unusual here because, while they've posted several of my pieces already, this is the first time I'll be writing something that's intended to be posted on multiple sites. This'll be a challenge, especially considering how I usually do this, 'cause I try to make this pilgrimage as extensive as I can, and I go through all 24 categories like this, so, (nervous deep breath) for my usual audience this is nothing new, but those of you experiencing this for the first time, buckle up; this is will take a while, and it doesn't help that this is particular strange Oscars year.

Now, I haven't seen most of these movies yet, sorry, and yeah, that helps, although from what I can tell, that if you have a good enough sense of what to look for, this won't be that big an issue. It's like the guy that wins the March Madness pool every year who knows nothing about college basketball, except I'm aiming to make slightly more educated guesses, but still.... don't worry, it's not all the voters watch the films either. The goal is always to try get this right, perfectly predict all 24 categories nominees. In reality, I'll be happy if maybe two or three particular predictions that I'm going out on a limb on come true and I'll just rewrite history afterwards to say that I correctly predicted every category afterwords, but this is still the Oscars, we're still film people, and this is the industry, the people who make movies telling us what they consider to be the best at their job. I think that's valuable information and why the Oscars moreso than some of the other awards, actually has value, even if we don't necessarily agree. I mean, in happens in every line of work. You go through town, you find five random chefs and ask them who's the greatest chef alive and working today, I guarantee you'll get five different answers and as long as they are talented and knowledgeable chefs, none of them would be wrong, and substitute that practice with any other job or profession and you'd get the same thing.

But it's still to take a poll and celebrate those who win, or even those who get nominated. So, I'm going through each category one-by-one, and I'll giving a list of potential nominees for each category, sometimes it's an Oscar shortlist they've made public for certain categories, sometimes it's a longlist that I've made out from keeping track of other major awards from Critics, Guilds and elsewhere and I'll also be using some of Gold Derby's odds as well. If you're not familiar with Gold Derby, they're the people who originally first started setting up betting odds for the Oscars, and they are Hollywood's go-to website and organization when it comes to all things awards; I'll probably post one of their most recent Editors chats where they discuss some of their thoughts and opinions, and you can also make predictions on the site and there's some points system of betting you can participate  in, I recommend them; it's fun, and also they don't just do Oscars they do every awards, most reality TV shows, etc. Anything like that. (In case you're wondering, while they do figure out odds, I don't believe you can actually place a bet on the Oscars in most states or at most sportsbooks; I know you can't in Nevada where I'm at, and if you're wondering why that is, it's because technically you can't bet on anything where somebody knows the result ahead of time, so..., but that's not the law everywhere.) Anyway, I make the list, I'll give any thoughts and trends I might see based on some of the other awards prognosticators that have come out, and whether or not any of those are helpful to me, and.... basically, I'm in the pundit here. Again, nothing new, everybody does it to some extent.

Anyway, let's go through this wonderful annual ritual of pretending I can predict the future. We'll start with the big eight races, Picture, Director, Acting categories, Writing categories, followed by Animation, Documentary Feature and Foreign Language feature, and for the rest of the technical awards we're gonna go alphabetical, until we get to those dreaded shorts at the end. Hope you enjoy it.


BEST PICTURE (Possibles, longlist)
"All the Money in the World"
"Baby Driver"
"Battle of the Sexes"
"The Big Sick"
"Blade Runner 2049"
"BPM (Beats Per Minute)"
"Brigsby Bear"
"Call Me By Your Name"
"Coco"
"Colossal"
"Crown Heights"
"Darkest Hour"
"Detroit"
"The Disaster Artist"
"Downsizing"
"Dunkirk"
"First They Killed My Father"
"The Florida Project"
"Get Out"
"A Ghost Story"
"Girls Trip"
"Good Time"
"Gook"
"The Greatest Showman"
"I, Tonya"
"In the Fade"
"Lady Bird"
"Lady MacBeth"
"Last Flag Flying"
"Logan"
"The Lost City of Z"
"Loveless"
"Marshall"
"Molly's Game"
"Mudbound"
"Personal Shopper"
"Phantom Thread"
"The Post"
"Professor Marston & the Wonder Women"
"Roman J. Israel, Esq."
"The Shape of Water"
"Split"
"The Square"
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"Wind River"
"Wonder Woman"
"Wonderstruck"

Okay, Best Picture is always tricky 'cause were never sure exactly how many films they'll nominate, it can be anywhere from five to ten, so you I'm gonna predict which ones I think will get in and if there's more than, I'll throw in those movies. They also slant this category to the preferential ballot, which means that instead of selecting just five-to-ten movies or whatever, voters rank the movies in order of preference, so what we're really counting here, is which movies are gonna get a high enough percentage of number one votes to get the nomination, and short of that, who gets twos and three and whatnot. This is a bigger issue when it comes to who wins, but it's come up in the nomination field before. "Foxcatcher"'s lack of a Best Picture nomination, despite Bennett Miller getting into Directing comes to mind; that movie probably had a lot of 3rd and 4th place votes on a lot of ballots and because the other films were counted first, that one just missed out despite eight films getting nominated. So, guaranteed in, I think it's safe to say, "Dunkirk", "Get Out', "Lady Bird" , "The Shape of Water" and "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri", are probably in already. and I suspect "Call Me By Your Name" has a passion vote behind it, "I, Tonya"'s coming up strong and if I continue with the recent trend of eight movies getting in, I think the last vote is probably between "Darkest Hour", "The Post", "The Florida Project" and "Mudbound". I can't immediately see a scenario where anything else gets in at this point; maybe long outside shots for "Blade Runner 2049" and "BPM (Beats Per Minute)", but I'm not really seeing that push. I was considering throwing in "The Disaster Artist" for awhile but that has so consistently missed Best Picture categories, that I'm just settled on leaving it out now and James Franco recent controversy doesn't help. PGA which is a little weird 'cause they're the only other Guild that uses a Preferential ballot, actually threw in, "Molly's Game", "Wonder Woman", and most intriguingly "The Big Sick" into their nominations; that's one I might be worried about, 'cause it's gotten into things like SAG Ensemble, and the Critics Choice Awards Picture list; I saw that one and admired it greatly but I'm having a hard time seeing how that gets in despite everything.

Predictions: 
BEST PICTURE
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
*(9th) Darkest Hour
*(10th) The Florida Project

I'm gonna say "The Post" gets in, if for no other reason than it's Spielberg. Sure, the Pentagon Papers story has to help too, but if anybody can Weinstein's place, at least in terms of having a film that suddenly pops into Best Picture out of nowhere with just consistent marketing and campaigning and in no other way replace Weinstein, it's probably Spielberg. I think "Darkest Hour", despite doing well at BAFTA is probably on the outside looking in, and I think it's between "The Florida Project" and "Mudbound" for the last passion vote potential nominee, *if they get to ten, then I'm gonna bet on "The Florida Project". Until we've seen the Netflix approach actually get something into a non-documentary category; I think it's just playing safe to not presume it in.


BEST DIRECTOR (Possibles, longlist)
Paul Thomas Anderson-"Phantom Thread"
Darren Aronofsky-"mother!"
Sean Baker-"The Florida Project"
Maggie Betts-"Novitiate"
Kathryn Bigelow-"Detroit"
Bill Condon-"Beauty and the Beast"
Sofia Coppola-"The Beguiled"
Guillermo Del Toro-"The Shape of Water"
James Franco-"The Disaster Artist"
Greta Gerwig-"Lady Bird"
Craig Gillespie-"I, Tonya"
Luca Guadagnino-"Call Me By Your Name"
Geremy Jasper-"Patti Cake$"
Patty Jenkins-"Wonder Woman"
Angelina Jolie-"First They Killed My Father"
Kogonada-"Columbus"
Yorgos Lanthimos-"The Killing of a Sacred Deer"
Malcolm D. Lee-"Girls Trip"
James Mangold-"Logan"
Stella Meghie-"Everything, Everything"
Martin McDonagh-"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Christopher Nolan-"Dunkirk"
William Oldroyd-"Lady MacBeth"
Ruben Ostlund-"The Square"
Alexander Payne-"Downsizing"
Jordan Peele-"Get Out"
Reginald Hudling-"Marshall"
Dee Rees-"Mudbound"
Matt Reeves-"War for the Planet of the Apes"
Benny & Josh Safdie-"Good Time"
Taylor Sheridan-"Wind River"
Ridley Scott-"All the Money in the World"
Aaron Sorkin-"Molly's Game"
Steven Spielberg-"The Post"
Lee Unkrich-"Coco"
Denis Villeneuve-"Blade Runner 2049"
Joshua Z. Weinstein-"Menashe"
Edgar Wright-"Baby Driver"
Joe Wright-"Darkest Hour"
Andrey Zvyagintsev-"Loveless"

When it comes to the Directing Oscar, there's usually always one name that gets in DGA that probably won't make it to the Oscars, and the idea is to try and figure out which one that is and who that nominee might be. You'd think that would be easy, but the Academy's been a little more fickle than people realize with this. Hell, a couple years ago, I completely missed Lenny Abrahmson on my shortlist and he got in for "Room" that year. And yet, a first look at the DGA group, Del Toro, Gerwig, McDonagh, Nolan, and Peele, that feels right. Luca Guadagnino feels like the most likely number six name that could sneak in, with perhaps Dee Rees, Denis Villeneuve and Joe Wright, and of course, let's not leave out Steven Spielberg, being the most likely names to come up and sneak into the category. Del Toro's due, McDonaugh's BP favorite, Gerwig and Peele both have outside influences and popularity reasons to get in, oddly, I think Christopher Nolan's the weak link. He's also due, but the directors' in the Academy have never particularly liked him; even in years when it seemed obvious he should get in, he somehow got left out.

Predictions: 
BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo Del Toro-"The Shape of Water"
Greta Gerwig-"Lady Bird"
Martin McDonagh-"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Christopher Nolan-"Dunkirk"
Jordan Peele-"Get Out"

If I were to predict somebody else getting in, it'd probably be Luca Guadagnino getting in instead of Christopher Nolan, but I went back over and checked all the precursor's I could find. Rarely did Nolan's name not show up as a Director nominee and the few times he didn't Guadagnino's name didn't show up either. I'm gonna say the DGA got the nominees right this year.


BEST ACTOR (Possibles, longlist)
Claes Bang-"The Square"
Javier Bardem-"mother!"
Jamie Bell-"Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool"
Chadwick Boseman-"Marshall"
Steve Carell-"Battle of the Sexes"
Timothee Chalamet-"Call Me By Your Name"
Tom Cruise-"American Made"
Matt Damon-"Downsizing"
Daniel Day-Lewis-"Phantom Thread"
Willem Dafoe-"The Florida Project"
Idris Elba-"The Mountain Between Us'
Ansel Elgort-"Baby Driver"
Colin Farrell-"The Killing of a Sacred Deer"
Ali Fazel-"Victoria and Abdul"
James Franco-"The Disaster Artist"
Andrew Garfield-"Breathe"
Jake Gyllenhaal-"Stronger"
Chris Hemsworth-"Thor: Ragnarok"
Hugh Jackman-"The Greatest Showman"
Hugh Jackman-"Logan"
Daniel Kaluuya-"Get Out"
Tom Hanks-"The Post"
James McAvoy-"Split"
Kumail Nanjani-"The Big Sick"
Gary Oldman-"Darkest Hour"
Gary Oldman-"The Space Between Us"
Robert Pattinson-"Good Time"
Nahuel Perez Biscayart-"BPM (Beats Per Minute)"
Jeremy Renner-"Wind River"
Adam Sandler-"The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)"
Andy Serkis-"War for the Planet of the Apes"
Albee Smith-"Detroit"
Harry Dean Stanton-"Lucky"
Miles Teller-"Thank You For Your Service"
Jacob Tremblay-"Wonder"
Jean-Louis Trintignant-"Happy End"
Denzel Washington-"Roman J. Israel, Esq."

When it comes to the Acting categories, generally, the rule of thumb is that the SAG Award will get somewhere between 15 and 17 names right. That would leave Denzel Washington the most likely out to me. "Roman J. Israel, Esq." has just not caught on, anywhere, except for Denzel, so I'm looking for a name that's maybe getting in at other awards, that the actors like, that maybe his film might've screened too late for the SAG voters, and is from a film that's a probable threat elsewhere. This could match a couple people, but I think it's between Daniel Day-Lewis and Tom Hanks for that last spot. Maybe, I can see some votes slip in for the late Harry Dean Stanton, but I don't think it's gonna be enough. I can maybe see a scenario where either Steve Carell or Willem Dafoe get lead actor votes but I doubt that very much too.

Predictions
BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet-"Call Me By Your Name"
Daniel Day-Lewis-"Phantom Thread"
James Franco-"The Disaster Artist"
Daniel Kaluuya-"Get Out"
Gary Oldman-"Darkest Hour"

In case you're wondering if maybe I'm underestimating James Franco's recent scandal, it's possible, but I'm suspecting that most of the voting was done before then and I'm doubting that it's gonna have the effect anyway that it would have for say, other potential nominees.


BEST ACTRESS (Possibles, Longlist)
Annette Bening-"Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool"
Jessica Chastain-"Molly's Game"
Judi Dench-"Victoria & Abdul"
Jane Fonda-"Our Souls at Night"
Gal Gadot-"Wonder Woman"
Sally Hawkins-"Maudie"
Sally Hawkins-"The Shape of Water"
Isabelle Huppert-"Happy End"
Zoe Kazan-"The Big Sick"
Nicole Kidman-"The Beguiled"
Nicole Kidman-"The Killing of a Sacred Deer"
Vicky Krieps-"Phantom Thread"
Diane Kruger-"In the Fade"
Brie Larson-"The Glass Castle"
Jennifer Lawrence-"mother!"
Frances McDormand-"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Helen Mirren-"The Leisure Seeker"
Cynthia Nixon-"A Quiet Passion"
Elisabeth Olson-"Wind River"
Natalie Paul-"Crown Heights"
Brooklynn Prince-"The Florida Project"
Florence Pugh-"Lady MacBeth"
Haley Lu Richardson-"Columbus"
Julia Roberts-"Wonder"
Margot Robbie-"I, Tonya"
Saoirse Ronan-"Lady Bird"
Lois Smith-"Marjorie Prime"
Octavia Spencer-"Gifted"
Kristen Stewart-"Personal Shopper"
Emma Stone-"Battle of the Sexes"
Maryl Streep-"The Post"
Daniela Vega-"A Fantastic Woman"
Michelle Williams-"All the Money in the World"
Michelle Williams-"The Greatest Showman"
Debra Winger-"The Lovers"
Kate Winslet-"Wonder Wheel"

Just on an initial glimpse at SAG, it looks like the one left out would be, Judi Dench. Yikes; there's a bet I don't want to make. Well, obvious response is obvious, next one up would be Meryl Streep. Let's take a second look here anyway though. A kid actor sneaking in wouldn't be so outside-the-box, maybe Brooklynn Prince. Perhaps Jessica Chastain for "Molly's Game", she's shown up in a few places and that movie seems to be picking up momentum. Diane Kruger for "In the Fade" shouldn't be overlooked, the Academy likes it when an actor who they knows works primarily in English will take a foreign language role. I wouldn't throw away Emma Stone either, that one checks a lot of boxes, and the Academy's willing to nominate last year's winners even when it seemed unlikely, for instance, Eddie Redmayne's "The Danish Girl" nomination that was a surprise. Actually, now I'm seriously considering Emma Stone now that I say it out loud, that actually makes a lot of sense. Also, I'm probably the only one throwing out Cynthia Nixon's name for "A Quiet Passion", I know that's a real longshot, but respected in the industry, real life person, and btw, she's an Oscar away from an EGOT. Seriously, look it up, she has the Grammy already which would've been the real tough one for her, and she's been the one I've paid attention to figuring she might be the surprise next EGOT winner. I'm not predicting it, I'm not going that far out on a limb, not this year anyway, but she's shown up in a few Critics' lists; if I really taking a shot at somebody real long, she's somebody I'd be keeping in the back of my head if I were you.

Prediction: 
BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins-"The Shape of Water"
Frances McDormand-"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Margot Robbie-"I, Tonya"
Saorise Ronan-"Lady Bird"
Meryl Streep-"The Post"

I'm really worried that I'm missing an obvious choice by not taking Emma Stone here, but this would require relying on the Actors Branch of the Academy to overlook Meryl Streep. They may overlook Judi Dench, they may pass over Spielberg occasionally, but I can't remember the last time they didn't bend over backwards for Meryl.


SUPPORTING ACTOR (Possibles, longlist)
Nnamdi Asomugha-"Crown Heights"
Kenneth Branagh-"Dunkirk"
Sterling K. Brown-"Marshall"
Steve Carell-"Battle of the Sexes"
Daniel Craig-"Logan Lucky"
Bryan Cranston-"Last Flag Flying"
William Dafoe-"The Florida Project"
Idris Elba-"Molly's Game"
Idris Elba-"Thor: Ragnarok"
Colin Farrell-"The Beguiled"
Laurence Fishburne-"Last Flag Flying"
Harrison Ford-"Blade Runner 2049"
Armie Hammer-"Call Me By Your Name"
Tom Hardy-"Dunkirk"
Woody Harrelson-"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Ed Harris-"mother!"
Ethan Hawke-"Maudie"
Dustin Hoffman-"The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)"
Lil Rel Howery-"Get Out"
Oscar Isaac-"Suburbicon"
Richard Jenkins-"The Shape of Water"
Doug Jones-"The Shape of Water"
Barry Keoghan-"The Killing of a Sacred Deer"
Ben Mendelsohn-"Darkest Hour"
Jason Mitchell-"Mudbound"
Charlie Plummer-"All the Money in the World"
Christopher Plummer-"All the Money in the World"
Will Poulter-"Detroit'
Sam Rockwell-"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Ray Romano-"The Big Sick"
Mark Rylance-"Dunkirk"
Benny Safdie-"Good Time"
Michael Shannon-"The Shape of Water"
Sebastian Stan-"I, Tonya"
Patrick Stewart-"Logan"
Ben Stiller-"The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)"
Michael Stuhlbarg-"Call Me By Your Name"
Justin Timberlake-"Wonder Wheel"
Jean-Louis Tringnant-"Happy End"
Bradley Whitford-"Get Out"

Steve Carell snuck into SAG here for "Battle of the Sexes" kinda surprisingly. (Shrugs) Maybe, but is such a loaded category this year, that I'm having trouble figuring out where he fits in. Both Harrelson and Rockwell got in for "Three Billboards..." also, and that's a bit rare, but not impossible to see. I've also seen several different pushes for both "Call Me By Your Name"'s Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg heavily out there. Patrick Stewart's also a real possibility, Michael Shannon got in last year with a predecessor either, so can't throw that one out. It's also "Dunkirk"'s best shot at an acting nomination with Mark Rylance. There's also a late push for Christopher Plummer; I'm really skeptical on that one. Sure, it's a nice story, and who doesn't want to honor Christopher Plummer when they get a chance, but the Academy has not been kind to Ridley Scott's work lately, and to be honest, I'm typically in agreement with them on that. I haven't seen "All the Money...", so I'm not judging that one, but I don't know, I think sneaking into the Golden Globes isn't enough here. If there's name I'd be really happy to see, it'd be Jason Mitchell for "Mudbound", which-, well, I'll spoil my thoughts here, even with the Netflix factor, I'm not understanding why Mary J. Blige is a serious Oscar contender for that film, but Jason Mitchell's performance; I thought was amazing and was the one I most remembered, so, if he can sneak, I'd be happy with that.

Predictions:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe-"The Florida Project"
Woody Harrelson-"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins-"The Shape of Water"
Sam Rockwell-"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Michael Stuhlbarg-"Call Me By Your Name"

Part of me is just, taking a look at who the big favorie critically-acclaimed supporting actor names are and nominating the ones that never win, but yeah, I think that's how it's gonna play out here. If Armie Hammer can get in for "Call Me By Your Name" and Stuhlbarg, look out for Guadagnino's name at Director. It's been way too long since two actors from two different movies got into the same category in a year for me to predict that happening here unfortunately.


SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Possibles, longlist)
Naomi Ackie-"Lady MacBeth
Mary J. Blige-"Mudbound"
Hong Chau-"Downsizing"
Abbie Cornish-"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Judi Dench-"Murder on the Orient Express"
Kirsten Dunst-"The Beguiled"
Carrie Fisher-"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"
Tiffany Haddish-"Girls Trip"
Regina Hall-"Girls Trip"
Holly Hunter-"The Big Sick"
Allison Janney-"I, Tonya"
Dafne Keen-"Logan"
Catherine Keener-"Get Out"
Riley Keough-"Logan Lucky"
Nicole Kidman-"The Killing of a Sacred Deer"
Melissa Leo-"Novitiate"
Lelsey Manville-"Phantom Thread"
Tatiana Maslany-"Stronger"
Audra McDonald-"Beauty and the Beast"
Kelly MacDonald-"Goodbye Christopher Robin"
Laurie Metcalf-"Lady Bird"
Julianne Moore-"Suburbicon"
Julianne Moore-"Wonderstruck"
Carey Mulligan-"Mudbound"
Sarah Paulsen-"The Post"
Michelle Pfieffer-"mother!"
Rosamund Pike-"Hostiles"
Brooklynn Prince-"The Florida Project"
Andrea Riseborough-"
Margot Robbie-"Goodbye Christopher Robin"
Julia Roberts-"Wonder"
Keesha Sharp-"Marshall"
Lois Smith-"Marjorie Prime"
Octavia Spencer-"The Shape of Water"
Tilda Swinton-"Okja"
Juno Temple-"Wonder Wheel"
Kristin Scott Thomas-"Darkest Hour"
Tessa Thompson-"Thor: Ragnarok"
Erin Vinaite-"The Florida Project"
Julie Walters-"Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool"
Naomi Watts-"The Glass Castle"
Allison Williams-"Get Out"
Michelle Williams-"The Greatest Showman"

Yeah, I'm not sure I get the Mary J. Blige thing; I loved "Mudbound", but it wasn't that performance that stuck out to me, at all and that, and overcoming the Netflix thing, feels like too much for me. This feels like the category I'm looking out for some shockers here. We all know Metcalf and Janney are safe, but the last three are really up in the air. I'm going out to put Hong Chau in, Holly Hunter I think is in, but I'm skeptical of that one, and that leaves one more, Octavia Specer makes the most sense, but there's also Tiffany Haddish out there; she's been losing steam, but I can't ignore her entirely. Lesley Manville's out there, so it Kristin Scott Thomas, if I didn't think Catherine Keener and Allison Williams would be siphoning each other's votes, I might seriously consider either of them this year, especially Allison Williams; I think her performance in "Get Out" has really gotten overlooked.

Predictions: 
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hong Chau-"Downsizing"
Holly Hunter-"The Big Sick"
Allison Janney-"I, Tonya"
Laurie Metcalf-"Lady Bird"
Octavia Spencer-"The Shape of Water"

Look out for Lesley Manville and/or Tiffany Haddish to sneak in though. Really worried about them, sneaking in here. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't see Mary J. Blige here. Tough, loaded category  this year.


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"American Made"-Gary Spinelli
"Baby Driver"-Edgar Wright
"Battle of the Sexes"-Simon Beaufoy
"Beatriz at Dinner"-Mike White
"The Big Sick"-Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
"Brad's Status"-Mike White
"Coco"-Story & Screenplay: Adrian Molina & Matthew Aldrich; Story: Lee Unkrich & Jason Katz
"Columbus"-Kogonada
"Darkest Hour"-Anthony McCarten
"Detroit"-Mark Boal
"Downsizing"-Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor
"Dunkirk"-Christopher Nolan
"The Florida Project"-Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch
"Get Out"-Jordan Peele
"I, Tonya"-Steve Rogers
"Ingrid Goes West"-David Branson Smith and Matt Spicer
"The Killing of a Sacred Deer"-Yorgos Lanthimos & Efthimis Filippou
"Lady Bird"-Greta Gerwig
"Logan Lucky"-Rebecca Blunt
"Loveless"-Oleg Negin and Andrey Zvyagintsev
"The Lovers"-Azazel Jacobs
"The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)"-Noah Baumbach
"mother!"-Darren Aronofsky
"Phantom Thread"-Paul Thomas Anderson
"The Post"-Liz Hannah and Josh Singer
"The Shape of Water"-Guillermo Del Toro & Vanessa Taylor
"The Square"-Ruben Ostlund
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Misouri-Martin McDonagh
"Wind River"-Taylor Sheridan

Now, it's a little tricky with the Writing Categories 'cause the Writers' Guild Award are a bit limiting, so while they're accurate enough to get a decent idea, you have to remember to look a little outside them for the whole five, 'cause there's a usually a film or two out there that's nomination-worthy, but the writer isn't a member of the Guild, so it would've been ineligible for them. That said, in terms of Original Screenplay, they've got "The Big Sick", "Get Out", "I Tonya," , "Lady Bird" and "The Shape of Water", those are pretty reasonable picks. That said, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri", is conspicuously absent. So is "Phantom Thread". Also, animated films aren't DGA eligible, so "Coco", is in consideration here. So is, "Dunkirk" even, which is particularly noteworthy, since Nolan is usually admired by writers, and I think he is in the WGA so...., and more importantly than that, I've noticed a trend lately where I suspect Writing is actually a bigger category in terms of Best Picture prognostication than even Directing lately. I mean, look at it recently. "La La Land" didn't win writing, that went to "Moonlight", "Mad Max..." and "The Revenant" weren't nominated in Writing, "Spotlight" only won Writing, but then won Best Picture. "Birdman..." upset "Boyhood" in Writing, and then won Picture, there's some recent precedents that indicate that we're going into an era where Writing is more valued than even Directing. Hell, in the last fifteen years, we've had Peter Jackson, The Coen Brothers and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, manage to win Writing, Directing and Picture in the same year for the same film. You know that only happened once beforehand, with Billy Wilder pulling over that trio for "The Apartment"? We're trending towards Writer/Director's more, but we're also trending towards Writers a lot more and that needs to be kept in mind.

Predictions: 
Get Out-Jordan Peele
I, Tonya-Steven Rogers
Lady Bird-Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water-Guillermo Del Toro & Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri-Martin McDonagh

Look, I love "The Big Sick", I'd be happy to see it get in here, but I'm just not seeing it. Honestly, I'm worried I'm underestimating "Phantom Thread" a bit, but "The Master" was a P.T. Anderson film that got three acting nominations and he didn't get into Writing that year, so I think it's possible, and while "The Post"'s not getting in, in a bit suspicious, I suspect with everything being equal, they're gonna look for the most innovative script, and to me, that's "I, Tonya", clearly sticks out. I could see, maybe, "The Florida Project," sneaking in late, but it'd have to break everywhere and I don't think it's doing that.


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"All the Money in the World"-David Scarpa
"The Beguiled"-Sofia Coppola
"Beauty and the Beast"-Stephen Chbosky and Evan Spillotopoulos
"Blade Runner 2049"-Hampton Fancher and Michael Green
"Call Me By Your Name"-James Ivory
"The Disaster Artist"-Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
"Donald Cried"-Kristopher Avedisian
"Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool"-Matt Greenhalgh
"It"-Chase Palmer & Cary Fukunaga and Gary Dauberman
"Lady MacBeth"-Alice Birch
"Last Flag Flying"-Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan
"Logan"-Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green
"The Lost City of Z"-James Gray"
"Marjorie Prime"-Michael Almereyda
"Molly's Game"-Aaron Sorkin
"Mudbound"-Dee Rees and Virgil Williams
"Stronger"-John Pollono
"Their Finest"-Caby Chiappe
"Victoria & Adbul"-Lee Hall
"Wonder"-Jack Thorne, Steve Conrad, Stephen Chbosky
"Wonder Woman"-Jason Fuchs & Allan Heinberg
"Wonderstruck"-Brian Selznick

Interestingly, it's the Adapted Screenplay that's a little more up in the air, 'cause there really hasn't been too many Adapted films that have broken through as true Best Picture contenders. "Call Me By Your Name" is probably the only I legitimately think could win Best Picture. WGA went with that, "The Disaster Artist", "Logan", interestingly enough, as well as "Molly's Game" and the really intriguing one "Mudbound". Netflix getting into Writing I think would be just as huge as getting into Picture for them. Other things that could sneak in, I can see "The Lost City of Z", Amazon does have a Writing win, last year with "Manchester by the Sea" remember, I could see "Victoria & Abdul", I could see "All the Money in the World" getting honored, and maybe "Blade Runner 2049", but- they're gonna honor that for technical awards; I don't think they're in a pressing need to honor that in the major awards. Outside-looking-in, maybe "Marjorie Prime" and maybe, any of the movies with "Wonder" in the title. (Man, how did that happen this year, there was five of them, and they're all in award consideration somewhere. Weird.) Actually currently, "Wonder" is fifth on Gold Derby's list, which, kinda surprises me a bit actually. Also, this is maybe the one category where "The Beguiled" might be relevant but I'm struggling to put it in.

Predictions: 
Call Me By Your Name-James Ivory
The Disaster Artist-Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
Logan-Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green
Molly's Game-Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound-Virgil Williams Dee Rees

I'm gonna go paint with WGA here. Um, the only reason I give is that, I've seen "Logan" so I do know how good that script is, but also, if I were a voter and a better, I'd bet that the writers would honor the best in the business and Scott Frank in particular, has been a great working screenwriter for a long time now and he has only once been nominated for an Oscar and that was for "Out of Sight" and sure, there's a dud or two here or there in his resume but go through his IMDB page and a wide-range of really beloved movies he's worked on and written, so I think, that's where I would lean as a writer, so that's where I think the voters will lean too.


ANIMATED FEATURE (Shortlist)
"The Big Bad Fox & Other Tales"
"Birdboy: The Forgotten Children"
"The Boss Baby"
"The Breadwinner"
"Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie"
"Cars 3"
"Cinderella the Cat"
"Coco"
"Despicable Me 3"
"The Emoji Movie"
"Ethel & Ernest"
"Ferdinand"
"The Girl Without Hands"
"In This Corner of the World"
"The LEGO Batman Movie"
"The LEGO Ninjago Movie"
"Loving Vincent"
"Mary and the Witch's Flower"
"Moomins and the Winter Wonderland"
"My Entire High School Singing into the Sea"
"Napping Princess"
"A Silent Voice"
"Smurfs: The Lost Village"
"The Star"
"Sword Art Online: The Movie--Ordinal Scale"
"Window Horses The Poetic Persian Epiphant of Rosie Ming"

So, in a bit of a twist, this year all Academy voters will vote on the nominees, which is a bit scary. We're used to seeing nominees from, all over the world in some cases, since the Animation Branch usually selected the nominees but now,- well, I don't think "The Emoji Movie" is getting in, but I suspect the more well-known titles might have the advantage. We almost certainly know "Coco" is getting in, and I suspect "The Breadwinner" and "Loving Vincent" are most likely in. That leaves two spots. Quick check of the Annie Awards, leans towards "The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales", which makes sense, that's from the same people who made "Ernest & Celestine" which got nominated a few years ago. Eh, also from "Birdboy: The Forgotten Children" has several awards over there, including the Goya, which is Spain's Oscar equivalent. "Ethel & Ernest" is based on a beloved graphic novel and is a British film from the guy who made, "The Snowman", which is a popular Christmas short over there, so I suspect that's got some British votes, although curiously that missed out on BAFTA, which went with, "Coco", "Loving Vincent" and-eh, "My Life as a Zucchini", which got translated to "My Life as a Courgette" there. How does that happen sometimes? Like, how come in Britain it's "Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone" in England, but "...Sorcerer's Stone" here? Like, we have philosophers here, that's not an unusual word in America. That's an English-to-English translation  like, how did that happen?!

(Sigh)

Alright, I went off-track there. Um, I can see "The Girl Without Hands", sneak in, that looks like it's good. There's also some anime, "In This Corner of the World", is based on a popular Manga; it's not a Studio Ghibli film, which is a bit of a detriment, there hasn't been another Japanese studio breakthrough at the Oscars yet. Another one from Japan is "Napping Princess", which looks interesting, but I think is a longshot, it's from a guy more well-known for TV anime than films, most notably, "East of Eden", "Cyborg" and "Ghost in the Shell" series. (I am trying to learn more about anime, than Studio Ghibli, bear with me though, I'm still flying blind when it comes to OVAs.) From Madman Studios, I could also see Naoko Yamada's "A Silent Voice" sneaking in; that's an anime from a female director, which is something I don't come across too often, and the story sounds somewhat interesting, they also have a really experimental piece of animation called "Sword Art Online: The Movie--Ordinal Scale"; I don't know, that one looks divisive as Hell to me.  Now "Mary and the Witch's Flower" is a Studio Panac film, which is interesting 'cause that's a studio that was formed from some former Ghibli animators, as was made by Hiromasa Yonabayshi, who was nominated for "When Marnie Was Here". That seems like a strong pick here. Whoever was in charge of "Moomins and the Winter Wonderland"'s trailer needs to be fired, 'cause their trailer is eight minutes long! Including a five-and-a-half post-trailer scene. Nope, not thinking that's in. If there's some dark twisted people in the Academt, "My Entire High School is Sinking Into the Sea" might show up. I'm doubting it, since they've had some opportunities lately like-eh, "Sausage Party" and passed them up, although this movie looks better than that one. "Window Horses..." I've heard about, it's a Canadian film that's popped up on their critics lists and awards, that could be a spoiler. Reminds me a little bit of "Persepolis" in the style and the story narrative. Despite everything I just said about everything else, I'm a little concerned I'm underestimating "The Boss Baby". That thing did pretty well at the Annie Awards so....

Predictions: 
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Big Bad Fox & Other Tales
The Breadwinner
Coco
Loving Vincent
Mary and the Witch's Flower

I'm worried I'm overlooking, say, "The Boss Baby" or "Captain Underpants..."; I could see them, making going with "The LEGO Batman Movie" as a makeup for not nominating "The LEGO Movie", but I don't know; I think they want room for something Miyazaki-adjacent and something that's classic, but also fun and good, and that leads me to think "The Big Bad Fox" and "Mary..." get in.


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (Shortlist)
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Chasing Coral
City of Ghosts
Ex Libris--The New Your Public Library
Faces Places
Human Flow
Icarus
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
Jane
LA 92
Last me in Aleppo
Long Strange Trip
One of Us
Strong Island
Unrest

I've seen a couple of these, "Strong Island" is pretty solid, albeit one-sided but that's fine. "Chasing Coral" I'm gonna write a review for that in the future, I'm not sure if it'll be posted on Age of the Nerd or not, but-uh, I have some issues with that movie that really bothered me. Little surprised to see it here honest. Well, I suspect "Faces Places" is easily in, that and "Jane" have been alternating awards all season. I suspect "Icarus", is in, especially considering the news lately. After that, I'm a little unsure. My gut says "Strong Island". "Ex Libris"-, like, I'd be shocked. I don't thing the Documentary branch really Frederick Weisman that much. I love him, but he's tough to take. There's a couple on the Middle East war, I loved "City of Ghosts", I think that's in, and I've also seen "LA 92", pop up in a lot of places. It's L.A., the L.A. riots; I mean, if weren't sick enough to not give it to an O.J. Simpson documentary last year, than I think something about the riots will catch on. I'm also hard-pressed to rule out, "An Inconvenient Sequel...". It didn't catch like the original, but forget the original had a slow climb as well. That wasn't a breakout doc right away, and there was tough competition that year, so it kinda slip up the pack until it's triumph at the Oscars that year, so the sequel could do the same.

Predictions:
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
LA 92

Yeah, "Strong Island" is powerful, but it's a bit of a confrontational, slow watch. I've heard good things about most of these, so I wouldn't be shocked by any of these titles getting in. So it's a good bunch of critically-acclaimed and honored films here, I think there's a lot of toss-ups being done by the Documentary Branch on this one, so we'll see. If all else fails here, look for the important subjects and the ones getting a lot of awards praise and buzz, and I would say overlook the Steve James one, but they already did that, so.... (Shrugs)


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE (Shortlist)
"A Fantastic Woman" (Chile)
"Felicite" (Senegal)
"Foxtrot" (Israel)
"In the Fade" (Germany)
"The Insult" (Lebanon)
"Loveless" (Russia)
"On Body and Soul" (Hungary)
"The Square" (Sweden)
"The Wound" (South Africa)

Obviously with the Academy there's always gonna be a few left out that probably shouldn't be; the most notable one absent is probably "BPM (Beats Per Minute)", which I think in a weaker year would've had an outside shot at a Screenplay nomination. Still, this looks like a decent list; there still some big names here. "Loveless" is the same director as "Leviathan", so his film should probably get in. "In the Fade", is from one of my favorite directors Fatih Akin, the Turkish/German filmmaker, plus his film has Diane Kruger, that a star America know; I suspect he's getting in. Also, "The Square", Ruben Ostlund, that might be a makeup for him not getting in for "Force Majeure", but that's also a film with some American actors in it, most notably Elisabeth Moss, so for that reason alone it's in consideration. "A Fantastic Woman" has some foreign backing that's known in America as well.

I'm always a little distrustful of Gold Derby on this category, because it's always the more mysterious ones that will trip you up. The only one I haven't seen pop up elsewhere, was "The Insult". I'm also debating whether or not any of the African films get in; I tend to think the Academy wants to spread to as many continents as possible, so Senegalese and South African films, just on that level seem intriguing; we could get four continents represented in the category, but I don't think they consider that too much unfortunately.

Predictions:
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
In the Fade (Germany)
Loveless (Russia)
The Square (Sweden)
The Wound (South Africa) 

I was tempted to throw in "The Insult" instead of "The Wound", 'cause I like that director Ziad Doueiri, he made a film called "Lebanon" awhile back that took place entirely inside a tank; worth seeking out, but-um, just based on the trailers "The Wound" looks the powerful of those two. "Foxtrot", "In the Fade" and "A Fantastic Woman" are all about grief, and I can't imagine three of those getting; that'd be depressing. "Felicite" looks interesting, might be the orange in the basket of apples, but I just don't think there's enough space this year. Even without some big films, this looks like a crowded year at the top of the foreign language category.


CINEMATOGRAPHY (Possibles, longlist)
"Beach Rats"-Helene Louvart
"Beauty and the Beast"-Tobias A. Schliessler
"The Beguiled"-Philippe Le Sourd
"Blade Runner 2049"-Roger Deakins
"Call Me By Your Name"-Sayombhu Mukdeeprom
"Columbus"-Elisha Christian
"Darkest Hour"-Bruno Delbonnel
"Detroit"-Barry Ackroyd
"Dunkirk"-Hoyte Van Hoytema
"The Florida Project"-Alexis Zabe
"Get Out"-Toby Oliver
"The Greatest Showman"-Seamus McGarvey
"Hostiles"-Masanobu Takaynagi
"The Killing of a Sacred Deer"-Thimios Bakatakis
"Lady Bird"-Sam Levy
"Lady MacBeth"-Ari Wegner
"Logan"-John Mathieson
"The Lost City of Z"-Darius Khondji
"Loveless"-Mikhail Krichman
"mother!"-Matthew Libatique
"Mudbound"-Rachel Morrison
"Murder on the Orient Express"-Haris Zambarloukos
"Personal Shopper"-Yorick Le Saux
"Phantom Thread"-
"The Post"-Janusz Kaminski
"The Shape of Water"-Dan Lautsen
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"-Steve Ledlin
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"-Ben Davis
"War for the Planet of the Apes"-Michael Seresin
"Wind River"-Ben Richardson
"Wonder"-Don Burgess
"Wonder Wheel"-Vittorio Storaro
"Wonder Woman"-Matthew Jensen
"Wonderstruck"-Ed Lachmann

Loaded category this year. We'll start with the obvious, if you don't know who Roger Deakins is..., basically for like two years, I've been hearing people and cinematographers excited about him working on "Blade Runner 2049", and hoping he will finally win his Oscar. He's been nominated, some ridiculous number, um, (Checks IMDB), 13 times, and has never won. His first nomination was for "The Shawshank Redemption" so you can do the math from there. He's way overdue, and Hollywood is forcing this, maybe as hard as Weinstein forced the Best Score Oscar for Ennio Morricone for "The Hateful Eight" a couple years ago. It's that big a push, so, if anybody else wins, it's an upset, and it's just figuring out who else is nominated. The one everybody's hoping for to get nominated is "Mudbound", which along with "Dunkirk", "Darkest Hour" and "The Shape of Water", and the reason we're caring about "Mudbound"; that film's cinematographer is Rachel Morrison, she is only woman ever nominated by the Guild, and there has never been a woman nominated for Best Cinematography at the Oscar, ever! It's the only non-gender specific category that's happened with. So if "Mudbound" has a shot anywhere, I'd bet on Cinematography, partly she deserves it, but mostly 'cause that's embarrassing. I don't know why this field in particular has been so, male-centric but it's time for that to end. Elsewise, keep outside the nominations, I'm trying to figure out how much the Academy likes "Darkest Hour", I think Bruno Delbonnel is in, but it's close. "Darkest Hour" hasn't shown up everywhere it was suspected of showing up, so there's some outliers we gotta look at. Gold Derby's got "Call Me By Your Name" sneaking in, I'm a little surprised "The Post", Janusz Kaminski isn't getting more votes. Spielberg's DPs usually get in, even when it's not one of his better films. Even "War Horse" got in that year. It's not even on Gold Derby's longlist, but if I were gonna go out on a limb, and I'm kinda thinking seriously about this one, "Loveless". It's a Russian film from the same guy who did "Leviathan" a couple years ago. They nominated "Ida" a few years ago, they have to lean towards a well-made foreign film occasionally. That's the one where I'm think if no one's paying attention, that could sneak in.

Predictions:
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049-Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour-Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk-Hoyte van Hoytema
Mudbound-Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water-Dan Lautsen

I'm going paint with the ASC Awards. Part of me's thinking "Loveless" could sneak, part of me's wondering if I'm just hoping too much for "Mudbound", I'm a little worried on "Call Me By Your Name", but I can't figure who I'd take out for them.


COSTUME DESIGN (Possibles, longlist)
"All the Money in the World"-Jenny Yates
"Battle of the Sexes"-Mary Zophres
"Beauty and the Beast"-Jacqueline Durran
"The Beguiled"-Stacey Battat
"Blade Runner 2049"-Renee April
"Call Me By Your Name"-Guilia Piersanti
"Darkest Hour"-Jacqueline Durran
"Dunkirk"-Jeffrey Kurland
"Get Out"-Nadine Haders
"The Greatest Showman"-Ellen Mirojnick
"Hostiles"-Jenny Eagen
"I, Tonya"-Jennifer Johnson
"Kingsman: The Golden Circle"-Arianne Phillips
"Lady Bird"-April Napier
"Lady MacBeth"-Holly Waddington
"Logan"-Daniel Orlandi
"The Lost City of Z"-Sonia Grande
"Mudbound"-Michael T. Boyd
"Murder on the Orient Express"-Alexandra Byrne
"My Cousin Rachel"-Dinah Collin
"Phantom Thread"-Mark Bridges
"The Post"-Ann Roth
"The Shape of Water"-Luis Sequeira
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"-Michael Kaplan
"Thor: Ragnarok"-Mayes C. Rubea
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"-Melissa Toth
"Victoria and Abdul"-Consolata Boyle
"Wonder Woman"-Lindy Hemming
"Wonderstruck"-Sandy Powell

The Costume Designers Guild always a fun Awards, 'cause they separate by genre, so we get more nominees and sometimes some interesting ones too. Still though, it's usually sci-fi and period films that get the most attention, although, there's a few interesting ones in the contemporary category. I can't imagine recreating ice skating outfits was easy for Jennifer Johnson, so "I, Tonya" doesn't seem that odd a pick to me, and Arianne Phillips has been honored by the Academy a few times, I suspect people are underestimating "Kingsman: The Golden Circle" a little bit in these craft categories. (Also, I wouldn't be shocked by "Lady Bird" showing up here either) That said, this is where "Beauty and the Beast" will show up,- (I don't think Jacqueline Durran's getting in twice, sorry "Darkest hour", and this is also where "Murder on the Orient Express" can come in. You gotta like stuff that's about the clothes as well, so "Phantom Thread" looks right here. "The Shape of Water", I'm debating on. The other kinda interesting one out there is "Wonder Woman", especially considering the controversy with the costuming regarding the character in some of the DC movies, that would be an interesting pick.

Predictions:
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast-Jacqueline Durran
The Greatest Showman-Ellen Mirojnick
I, Tonya-Jennifer Johnson
Murder on the Orient Express-Alexandra Byrne
Phantom Thread-Mark Bridges

Everything else is basically paint based on film and name recognition, (Yes, "Murder on the Orient Express' is getting in, Alexandra Byrne's too big a name to leave out and that movie is all costume design) and I'm gonna take a shot on "I, Tonya" sneaking in. Little worried about "Wonder Woman" and maybe "Star Wars...", they have a good history with this category, but I think they've also had forty years of films to base their looks on, so...


FILM EDITING (Possibles, longlist)
"All the Money in the World"-Claire Simpson
"Baby Driver"-Paul Machliss & Jonathan Amos
"Blade Runner 2049"-Joe Walker
"BPM (Beats Per Minute)"-Robin Campillo
"Call Me By Your Name"-Walter Fasano
"Coco"-Steve Bloom
"Cries from Syria"-Aaron I. Butler
"Darkest Hour"-Valerio Bonelli
"Dawson City: Frozen Time"-Bill Morrison
"Detroit"-William Goldenberg
"Dunkirk"-Lee Smith
"The Florida Project"-Sean Baker
"Get Out"-Gregory Plotkin"
"A Ghost Story"-David Lowery
"Good Time"-Ronny Bronstein and Benny Safdie
"The Greatest Showman"-Tom Cross, Robert Duffy, Joe Hutshing, Michael McCusker Jon Poll and Spencer Susser
"I, Tonya"-Tatiana S. Riegel
"Jane"-Joe Beshenkoysky, Will Znidaric, Brett Morgen
"Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold"-Ann Collins
"LA 92"-TJ Martin, Scott Stevenson and Dan Lindsay
"Lady Bird"-Nick Houy
"Logan"-Michael McCusker
"Long Strange Trip"-Keith Frasse
"Molly's Game"-Alam Baumgarten, Josh Schaeffer & Elliot Graham
"mother!"-Andrew Weisblum
"Murder on the Orient Express"-Mick Audsley
"Phantom Thread"-Dylan Tichenor
"The Post"-Michael Broshar
"The Shape of Water"-Sidney Wolinsky
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"-Bob Ducsay
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"-Jon Gregory
"Victoria & Abdul"-Melanie Oliver
"War for the Planet of the Apes"-William Hoy
"Wonder Woman"-Martin Walsh

By far, the most consistent predictor of Best Picture is getting an Editing nomination. You don't have to win but you almost certainly need to get in. The last to film to win without one was "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)" and that film didn't really have editing, and before that you go back to "Ordinary People" winning. So if you think, "Get Out" or "Three Billboards..." or "Lady Bird" is a Best Picture favorite, you better put them in here. It doesn't always match up though and there are exceptions. My rule is to look around for movies that involve a lot of chases. Every editor you ever know will tell you that the toughest thing to edit is a chase scene. So, action movies with a lot of chasing. The ACE Eddies are a big help here, they also separate into genres so, "Blade Runner 2049", "Dunkirk" and "The Shape of Water" got into Drama with "The Post", which, Michael Kahn, he could play spoiler, and "Molly's Game" was a surprise nominee there. Comedy though, "Baby Driver" got in with "Get Out", "I, Tonya", "Lady Bird" and "Three Billboards...". "I, Tonya"'s got some interesting editing too, I can definitely see that getting in here.

Predictions:
BEST FILM EDITING
Baby Driver-Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss
Dunkirk-Lee Smith
Get Out-Gregory Plotkin
The Shape of Water-Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri-Jon Gregory

I had "I, Tonya" in here for a bit, and I am fairly worried that I'm underestimating that film here, so I went back to double comparing the Best Director winners with the Editing, 'cause I how wondered how often a Best Director winner won without an Editing nomination; not counting the "Birdman..." year, the last time that happened was 2005 with "Brokeback Mountain", and before that, you gotta go back to "Ordinary People". It's not impossible, but I'm not certain it's likely enough for me to go against it. I'm a little concerned that I'm overestimating "Baby Driver", but it's shown up everywhere, I'm gonna put it in. Yeah, I'm sticking with these five; nervously sticking with them, but stickin' with them.


MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING (Shortlist)
Bright
Darkest Hour
Ghost in the Shell
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
I, Tonya
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder

Usually, as may have noticed by now, the Guilds are typically the best place to look, at least they are and have been for me, in determining your predictions. If there's one big exception to this, it's probably Makeup & Hairstyling. In facts the MUAHS Awards, (Makeup Artists and Hairstylists Guild; get it, MUAH, like a kiss? It's actually a clever name.) are basically useless. Far and away I usually do better predicting this award by just going on Youtube and watching the trailers and just, determining whether or not the makeup seems impressive enough to me. And the Makeup Branch of the Academy, is still weird despite this. I have no idea why they only honor three nominees every year, it's a stupid rule, most of the Academy thinks it's a stupid rule, but that's the Branch's prerogative for some reason, so, it's three, after they shortlist it from seven. Other than that, I check to see if any of Rick Baker's work is potentially up, and it's not this year, make sure there's no ridiculous what-the-hell-is-that nominee, usually from some obscure foreign film nobody's heard about, and there's not this year. Time to check out the trailers for the makeup.
(20 minutes later)
Ironically, I think I am going a bit paint with the guild here, but-eh, the clear favorite are "Darkest Hour" and "Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2", and after that, I'm not 100% sure. My gut instinct is "I, Tonya". It's the most likely Best Picture candidate in the group, and the makeup is critical (BTW, the only film here that didn't get a MUAH nomination was "Victoria & Abdul", which usually means I should probably vote for that, and it does look impressive, but it looks like there's more interesting nominees out there.) I'm worrying about "Wonder", 'cause usually a nominee I might eliminate since it's only one major makeup job, but eh, that's usually when this branch would screw me over. Remember this branch nominated "Bad Grandpa" a few years back. They do not care about quality of film. I guess it's a toss-up between "Ghost in the Shell" and "I, Tonya" for the last spot. (Grabs a coin, flips it.)

Predictions: 
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
I, Tonya


ORIGINAL SCORE (Possibles, Longlist)
"Beauty and the Beast"-Alan Menken
"Blade Runner 2049"-Benjamin Wallfisch
"Brimstone & Glory"-Dan Romer and Benh Zeriman
"Coco"-Michael Giacchino
"Darkest Hour"-Dario Marianelli
"Dunkirk"-Hans Zimmer
"Get Out"-Michael Abels
"Good Time"-Daniel Lopatin
"Goodbye Christopher Robin"-Carter Burwell
"Jane"-Philip Glass
"Lady Bird"-Jon Brion
"Logan"-Marco Beltrami
"Murder on the Orient Express"-Patrick Doyle
"Phantom Thread"-Jonny Greenwood
"The Post"-John Williams
"The Shape of Water"-Alexandre Desplat
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"-John Williams
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"-Carter Burwell
"Victoria & Abdul"-Thomas Newman
"War for the Planet of the Apes"-Michael Giacchino
"Wind River"-Nick Cave and Warren Ellis
"Wonderstruck"-Carter Burwell
"Wonder Woman"-Rupert Gregson-Williams

The music categories are always difficult. There's not really an established Guild that gives out awards for them and especially when it comes to Original Song, the Academy doesn't have a good history behind it, especially recently. If you can listen to all these scores, you might want to do that, but that takes time. That said, there's a few scattered clues out there. "Dunkirk" seems like a particular lock, having shown up everywhere it needs to, and gotten into the Grammys comparable category which combines with television, so that's a good standard. "Phantom Thread" has also shown up everywhere and I can't imagine a scenario where that's not getting in.Carter Burwell's names has shown up a few times here, he seems like a lock for, at least one of his movies. I've also seen Michael Giacchino's name pop up a few time, for "...Planet of the Apes"; I'm a little skeptical of that one, but that's an interesting pick. John Williams is of course, almost perennially a nominee and he's got a real shot at being a double-nominee again.

Predictions
PREDICTIONS:
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I had "War for the Planet of the Apes" in for awhile here, and then I just couldn't force myself to imagine the Academy not nominating John Williams when they have a couple shots at it.


ORIGINAL SONG (Possible, longlist)
"Love and Lies"-"Band Aid"
"If I Dare"-"Battle of the Sexes"*
"Evermore"-"Beauty and the Beast"*
"How Does a Moment Last Forever"-"Beauty and the Beast"
"She"-"Bombshell: The Hedy Lamarr Story"
"Your Hand I Will Never Let It Go"-"The Book of Henry"
"Buddy's Business"-"Brawl in Cell Block 99"*
"The Crown Sleeps"-"The Breadwinner"
"World Gone Mad'-"Bright"
"Mystery of Love"-"Call Me By Your Name"*
"Visions of Gidion"-"Call Me By Your Name"*
"Captain Underpants Theme Song"-"Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie"*
"Ride"-"Cars 3"*
"Run That Race"-"Cars 3"*
"Tell Me How Long"-"Chasing Coral"
"Remember Me"-"Coco"*
"Prayers for the World"-"Cries from Syria"*
"There's Something Special"-"Despicable Me 3"
"It Ain't Fair"-"Detroit"*
"Can't Hold Out On Love"-"Father Figures"
"Home"-"Ferdinand"*
"I Don't Want to Live Forever"-"Fifty Shades Darker"*
"You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way"-"Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool"*
"I Get Overwhelmed"-"A Ghost Story"*
"This is Us"-"The Greatest Showman"*
"This is How You Walk On"-"Gifted"
"The Pure and the Damned"-"Good Time"
"How Should a Sparrow Fly"-"Hostiles"
"Truth to Power"-"An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power"
"Next Stop, the Stars"-"Kepler's Dream"
"We'll Party All Night"-"Lake of Fire"
"Friends are Family"-"The LEGO Batman Movie"
"Found My Place"-"The LEGO Ninjago Movie"
"Stand Up for Something"-"Marshall"*
"Longing for Summer"-"Moomins and the Winter Wonderland"
"Rain"-"Mary and the Witch's Flower"
"Mighty River"-"Mudbound"*
"Never Forget"-"Murder on the Orient Express"*
"Hold the Light"-"Only the Brave"
"PBNJ"-"Patti Cake$"
"Tuff Love (Finale)"-"Patti Cake$"
"How a Heart Unbreaks"-"Pitch Perfect 3"
"The Promise"-"The Promise"*
"Stubborn Angels"-"Same Kind of Different As Me"
"Dancing Through the Wreckage"-"Served Like a Girl"
"Keep Your Eyes on Me"-"The Shack"
"The Star"-"The Star"*
"Jump"-"Step"

I also have the same approach to Original Song, only I actually do listen to every song if I can. So, I went streaming and if I can find somewhere than I listened to it. I also should mention that, this category in particular has a bad recent history of lazinesss and corruption within the voting. One song was even disqualified shortly after getting nominated in recent years after illegal campaign tactics involving of the members of the Board of Governors was discovered. That's not to mention that fact that there have been some seriously questionably nominations in recent years. Not last year, that year the category was so loaded that they would've really had to try to screw that up;  this year, eh, I think it's a bit more slim pickens here. There's some decent songs here but great songs? Few and far between and if the branch made any logical sense, this would be easy to figure out."If", big word ,two letters," as my Uncle would say.

One troubling issue is that some of better songs are from film's with multiple nominations. You'd think that wouldn't be an issue, but normally that's a death-stroke for a possible nominee splitting the votes. It's either the death blow, or like "La La Land" last year, it's such a juggernaut that it'll sneak two songs in. (Current Academy rules state that only two songs per movie are allowed to be nominated, a dumb rule that was also the result of a history of lazy voting from the Academy) So, I've listed any song that has some hypothetical chance at getting nominated, like a name attached that's actually noteworthy, or just something that sorta decency sounds like a good song,- (Sigh) This category's impossible to predict. After "Alone but Not Alone" got nominated I lost all hope with this category. There's enough good here that there shouldn't be an excuse for anything utterly shitty getting in this year, but, hmm...., we'll see. Do your best.

Predictions: 
"Captain Underpants Theme Song"-"Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie"
"Remember Me"-Coco
"This is Me"-"The Greatest Showman"
"Truth to Power"-"An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power"
"Stand Up for Something"-Marshall

I'm fairly confident on the songs from "Coco", "The Greatest Showman" and "Marshall" getting in, personally I wouldn't mind seeing, maybe "Dancing Through the Wreckage" from "Served Like a Girl" or "Ride" from "Cars 3" or especially "You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way" from "Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool", but I'm gonna say that some documentary gets in, and with an unusual lack of a J. Ralph connection among the shortlist this year, I'll take going back into the "An Inconvenient Truth" well again. And-eh, what the hell, I went with "Captain Underpants...", I really think the Academy is just twisted enough to do that. And-, c'mon, who wouldn't want to see the show interrupted by a Weird Al performance? He gets screwed over everywhere else, let's throw a nomination his way, why not?


PRODUCTION DESIGN (Possibles, longlist)
"Baby Driver"
"Beauty and the Beast"
"The Beguiled"
"Blade Runner 2049"
"Call Me By Your Name"
"Coco"
"Darkest Hour"
"The Disaster Artist"
"Downsizing"
"Dunkirk"
"Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool"
"The Florida Project"
"Get Out"
"Goodbye Christopher Robin"
"The Greatest Showman"
"I, Tonya"
"Lady Bird"
"Lady MacBeth"
"The LEGO Batman Movie"
"Logan"
"Loving Vincent"
"Mudbound"
"mother!"
"Murder on the Orient Express"
"Phantom Thread"
"The Post"
"The Shape of Water"
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"Victoria & Abdul"
"War for the Planet of the Apes"
"Wonder Woman"
"Wonderstruck"

The ADG Awards (Art Directors' Guild) also goes by genre so we got a few choices here. "Beauty and the Beast" has been a small favorite, basically since day one in this category, it got into fantasy with "Blade Runner 2049", which is also a heavy favorite, "Star Wars..", "War for the Planet of the Apes" and "Wonder Woman". Interesting list, but the Period Film nominations, "Darkest Hour", "Dunkirk", "Murder on the Orient Express", "The Post" and "The Shape of Water". Those are ten interesting choices to select between. There's also a contemporary film genre, that has some of the presumed Best Picture nods, but it has, one intriguing nomination though with "Downsizing". The last movie that I remembered that did something similar with the Production Design was "Honey, I Shrunk the Kids"; I double-checked, it did win a BAFTA for Special Visual Effect, but it didn't get a nomination for it's Production Design, anywhere, including the Oscar, so I'm gonna presume that's out of the running, and there's else obvious in the Contemporary Film category, so we're picking from the Fantasy and Period Films here. Gold Derby's listing "Phantom Thread" and "The Greatest Showman" as possibles pretty high, but if they couldn't get into the Guild, I'm leaving them out just to be safe.

Predictions: 
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water

"The Post" might be a little surprising to some, but Spielberg films do well in this category, 'cause he's great at getting really specific details down. I'm still kicking myself for not predicting "Lincoln" in this category years ago, even though I knew they actually acquired a lot of Lincoln's real items for the film. Also, stylized journalism movies, actually have some success in this category, most notably, "All the President's Men", but "Good Night, and Good Luck." also got into this category, so there's a lot of precedent here.


SOUND EDITING
"All the Money in the World"
"Baby Driver"
"Battle of the Sexes"
"Beauty and the Beast"
"Blade Runner 2049"
"Breathe"
"Cars 3"
"Coco"
"Darkest Hour"
"Despicable Me 3"
"Detroit"
"Dunkirk"
"Eric Clapton: Life in 12 Bars"
"Ferdinand"
"Gaga: Five Feet Two"
"Get Out"
"The Greatest Showman"
"Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2"
"I, Tonya"
"An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power"
"It"
"Jane"
"Justice League"
"Kong: Skull Island"
"Lady Bird"
"The LEGO Batman Movie"
"Logan"
"Long Strange Trip"
"Okja"
"Only the Brave"
"The Post"
"The Shape of Water"
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"
"Thor: Ragnarok"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"Transformers: The Last Knight"
"War for the Planet of the Apes"
"Wonder Woman"
"Wonderstruck"

For reasons I have never fully understood, the MPSE Golden Reel Award Nominations, (Motion Picture Sound Editors Guild) traditionally never announce their Guild's nomination the day before the Oscars do, so I'm a bit of a disadvantage here. So fair warning, predictions subject to change on this category. Let's start with traditional thing to remind ourselves of the difference, Sound Editing is the recording and creation of the sounds, Sound Mixing is the people who take those sounds and place them in the movie and also adjusts which sounds and what levels and volumes they're present in the film, and that also includes the music and score, so Mixing is where Musicals tend to do better than Editing. For more detail check out this Variety article:

http://variety.com/2016/artisans/production/oscars-sound-editing-mixing-explained-1201682457/

Alright, that said, these are two distinct skills that are so intricately linked that many people even in the industry struggle with the difference, so generally if you can figure out what gets nominated for one, they're probably likely choices to get nominated for the second category. This is also where, generally action and war movies do best, so "Dunkirk", "Star Wars...", "Blade Runner 2049", the BAFTAs included all three of them. (BAFTAs only give out one sound award) It's not the most assured precedent out there, but it's a good one. They also included "Baby Driver", and "The Shape of Water". "The Shape of Water" didn't make the Sound Mixers Guild oddly enough, the others did however. That sorta makes sense though, since "The Shape of Water" probably has more impressive Sound Editing instead of Sound Mixing. I think might be better for "Baby Driver", especially considering that film's use of music, so part of me's thinking that's the one that's off. If it is, I have some choices. "War of the Planet of the Apes" actually has more votes on Gold Derby than "The Shape of Water" right now, despite "The Shape of Water" having better odd. The big sleepers I'm wondering about are "Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2" and also, "Coco". Sound, has a tendency to honor animation more than most other crafts, which makes sense since they often have a lot more work than for just a live-action film.

Predictions: 
BEST SOUND EDITING
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
The Shape of Water
War of the Planet of the Apes

I'm playing a hunch here and I think "Baby Driver" has a better shot at Mixing.  I'm a little worried about "Wonder Woman" and "Star Wars..." but "Guardians..." did win the Hollywood Film Award for Sound, which, isn't much, in fact it's very little and I hate those awards, but without any other guidance I think we're underestimating them, and "War of the Planet of the Apes", might make sense to fill in that animated slot instead of "Coco'.


SOUND MIXING
"All the Money in the World"
"Baby Driver"
"Battle of the Sexes"
"Beauty and the Beast"
"Blade Runner 2049"
"Breathe"
"Cars 3"
"Coco"
"Darkest Hour"
"Despicable Me 3"
"Detroit"
"Dunkirk"
"Eric Clapton: Life in 12 Bars"
"Ferdinand"
"Gaga: Five Feet Two"
"Get Out"
"The Greatest Showman"
"Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2"
"I, Tonya"
"An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power"
"It"
"Jane"
"Justice League"
"Kong: Skull Island"
"Lady Bird"
"The LEGO Batman Movie"
"Logan"
"Long Strange Trip"
"Okja"
"Only the Brave"
"The Post"
"The Shape of Water"
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"
"Thor: Ragnarok"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"Transformers: The Last Knight"
"War for the Planet of the Apes"
"Wonder Woman"
"Wonderstruck"

Okay, so the CAS Awards did come out on time, (Cinema Audio Society, the Sound Mixers Guild) so I have a little help here. Now interesting, they didn't go for one of the presume favorites in the category, "Blade Runner 2049". Could be something, could be nothing, but I suspect it's out for Mixing. This would fill up the "Baby Driver", is there anything else I need to reconsider? Hmm... 

Predictions: 
BEST SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol 2
The Shape of Water
War of the Planet of the Apes

I debated over whether to throw "The Greatest Showman" in here, eh, it might show up, but I don't really suspect it's a musical big enough to breakthrough even to sound, and frankly, music's so important to "Baby Driver" and "Guardians..." that I don't think they're gonna need a musical in here.


VISUAL EFFECTS (Shortlist)
Alien: Covenant
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Okja
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
War for the Planet of the Apes

You'll have to bare with a bit, I'm only now getting around to the VES Awards (Visual Effects Society, not technically a Guild, but close enough the Visual Effects people get.) "Blade Runner 2049" was big there, so was "War of the Planet of the Apes" so was "Star Wars", uh, after that, eh, "Kong: Skull Island" got some stuff. Curiously, "The Shape of Water" was shutout here. That's a bit of a shocker. "Alien..." people will mention that that franchise usually if they make it this far in the voting they ultimately get in; I'm not as sold on that. I think "Valerian..." got a rouge Annie Award nomination, that about the only thing I've heard from them, but that looks hard to ignore craft-wise. There also some votes out there for "Okja", Bong Joon-ho's latest WTF film, um, eh, they might be impressed, but I'm thinking there's other things that might impress them more. 

Predictions:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

I was gonna leave out "The Shape of Water" and put "Dunkirk" in there, but I did some research; the last time a straight period war picture even got into Special Effects, was "Pearl Harbor," and that lost to "Lord of the Rings..." which is legitimately one of the few times I thought "Lord of the Rings" was the better choice. (Not that much better though, "A.I. Artificial Intelligence" was up that year too, that should've won.) Going further back, this category doesn't like that genre. I assumed "Saving Private Ryan" at least was nominated; it wasn't,  You have to go back to 1970, when "Tora! Tora! Tora!" beat "Patton" in the category, to find a war movie that won, and against the only other period war film I can find that's ever gotten nominated. So, I don't like "Dunkirk"'s chances. In fact, the big one I'm worried about is "Valerian...". That feels like I should be considering and paying more attention to, but I think I'd have to throw out "The Shape of Water" for that. Eh, maybe, but I better play it safe.  


ANIMATED SHORT FILM (Shortlist)
"Cradle"
"Dear Basketball"
"Fox and the Whale"
"Garden Party"
"In a Heartbeat"
"Life Smartphone"
"Lost Property Office"
"Lou"
"Negative Space"
"Revolting Rhymes"

I actually managed to watch, most of these, I couldn't get "Lost Propert Office" of "Life Smartphone" and I couldn't get to "Negative Space", the rest I got around to. "Lou" is the Pixar one that might be familiar to most of you, and it's suspect it will get in. "Dear Basketball" was written and narrated by Kobe Bryant and is about his life-long love with basketball and how he grew up to live of boyhood dream of being a Los Angeles Laker and lead the team to several championship and accolades. Good for him, I say. Good for him, I say, glad you always dreamed and imagined yourself as a Laker, you Philly-born-and-raised athlete. (Annoyed sigh, biting lip in anger) Yeah, I didn't care much for that one, either as a short and especially as a Sixers fan. (Deep seething breath)  Anyway....

Predictions;
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Cradle
Garden Party
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Revolting Rhymes

I just went with the ones that impressed or touched me the most. "Revolving Rhymes" is interesting as it's actually one of two shorts that adapt some Roald Dahl stories quite well. Really loved "Garden Party" that's my favorite, the animation and storytelling was wonderful. "Cradle" and "In a Heartbreak" are also great. I'm a little worried about "Life Smartphone" a Chinese short that looks funny, although a bit smug, but funny. That said, I'll stick with these. My rule is, if I don't see the whole thing, the animation in the trailer has to be stellar to predict is; I saw nice animation; I didn't see stellar unfortunately. 


DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM (Shortlist)
"116 Cameras"
"Alone"
"Edith+Eddie"
"Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405"
"Heroin(e)"
"Kayayo"
"Knife Skills"
"Ram Dass, Going Hom"
"Ten Meter Tower"
"Traffic Stop"

The documentary short category has been competitive lately, and I'm trying to get through all of them, but I'm already passed deadline and I still got a category to go. Anyway, the big new winner in this category is the New York Times, who have in recent years started to dominate this category. Netflix and HBO of course also have some say in the category, but as well as others but pay attention to the New York Times Op-Docs, they're showing up a lot here. "Alone", "116 Cameras" "Ten Meter Tower" are NYT films. 

Predictions
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
Edith+Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e) 
Knife Skills
Ten Meter Tower

I'm just going here by reputation mostly. Actually, I've a lot more of these selections show up elsewhere than I usually see, there's some consistency with the category, and as a prognosticator I like that. Subject matter, matters a bit, entertainment values helps though; that's usually how and when the upsets come in, so the other four have picked up some things, and I decided to throw "Knife Skills" in there because it looked like the most fun. I liked "Alone" quite a bit, and "Traffic Stop" and "Kayayo" worry me a bit. We'll see


LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM (Shortlist)
"DeKalb Elementary"
"The Eleven O'Clock"
"Facing Mecca"
"Icebox"
"Lost Face"
"My Nephew Emmett"
"Rise of a Star"
"The Silent Child"
"Watu Wote/All of Us"
"Witnesses"

Alright, final category. Live-Action short. Alright, good rules of thumb, if there's anybody remotely famous in these, just put it in whether it's good or not. Same goes for anybody behind the camera. Look up a director's name or two and see if it sound's familiar; it easily could be somebody who's struggle to get an Award elsewise and decided to try the short film route as an easy option. (Don't laugh, it's happened before). After that, look at subject matter, but look at the trailers if a film has one and just judge the quality of the filmmaking, just an easy test. If it really looks like impressive filmmaking, like a lot of filmmaking craft is involved, that's usually a big hint.  


Predictions: 
LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
DeKalb Elementary
Lost Face
Rise of a Star
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us

I'm taking a bit of a shot here by not putting in "My Nephew Emmett", um, I won't go into too much detail with that one, but Emmett's last name is Till....-  lost yeah, I'm taking a chance here, but I think "Lost Face" could be a spoiler. It's based on a Jack London short and has a lot Native American actors in it; I'd like to see that get in. "Rise of a Star" has Catherine Deneuve in it, "Watu Wote..." is a Kenyan film that actually won the Student Academy Award this year, and "The Silent Child" is basically a new version of the Helen Keller and Anne Sullivan, and it looks like a good one.  "DeKalb Elementary" is probably the favorite though. 


Wednesday, January 17, 2018

THE 7TH ANNUAL ONE-YEAR-LATER AWARDS! HONORING THE BEST IN CINEMA FROM THE YEAR BEFORE LAST! Presented by "David Baruffi's Entertainment Views and Reviews".

(Inside HULU Offices, CONAN O'BRIEN knocks on SARAH SILVERMAN's office door)

CONAN
Hey Sarah!

(Sarah looks up from her desk)

SARAH
Oh, hi Conan, what a nice surprise.

CONAN
I-uh, I called and told you, I was coming, remember.

SARAH
Right, that was you, wasn't it?

CONAN
Yeah, it was.

(Long pause)

SARAH
Well, come on in, sit down.

CONAN
Thanks.

(Conan enters and sits down)

SARAH
What did you want to talk about?

CONAN
Well, I'm sure you're aware that the OYL Awards are coming up.

SARAH
Oh, I've been nominated for twice for those; how many times were you nominated?

CONAN
(Uncomfortable pause)
Um,-, well, it doesn't matter, but word has it they're thinking about having a former host come back and host this year-

SARAH
I thought they had a host set this year?

CONAN
They did.

(FLASHBACK MONTAGE of ME making several announcements to the press)

ME
It's my privilege to announce that our host this year will be the former OYL Award Nominee as a member of the cast of "Margin Call", the great and beloved Kevin Spacey!

ME
I'm proud to announce that our new host, a past 2-time nominee as a member of the casts of "Blue Jasmine" and "American Hustle", the great Louis C.K.!

ME
It's our great honor to have the great Senator, Al Franken as our host.-

ME
Danny Masterson will host...-

ME
The great Jeffrey Tambor, has agreed to fill  in as host...-

ME
The wonderful Singer-songwriter and former "The Voice" contestant Melanie Martinez will host this year...-

ME
(Talking off to side of podium)
I seriously can't believe the one random girl we picke-
(Realizing he's being caught by mike.)
Ah, yes, we're proud to announce that the great Dustin Hoffman, has stepped in-

ME
(Nervous)
Woody Al-, nevermind, we're not announcing a host today!

ME
Proud to announce former "Smallville" actress Allison Mack, will host the OYL Awards this year. And it will stay that way, unless she's apart of some secret sex cult or something.

ME
So, Allison Mack will no longer...-
(Holding in anger)
Um, be hosting the OYLs...-

(Montage ends)

CONAN
So yeah, the word is, they're looking to go back to a past host for this year's OYLs, and it sounds like we're the top candidates.

SARAH
Ah, I see.

CONAN
So, I came, 'cause-, I was hoping that, if they asked you, that you would host.

SARAH
You don't want to do it?

CONAN
Of course, nobody wants to host it,  it's the OYLs,- but I promised them that if they were in a pinch I would do it again, if there was literally nobody else.

SARAH
Oh, so you want me to-

CONAN
Yeah, you do it this time, so I don't have to say yes.

SARAH
Not a problem Conan.

CONAN
Thank you.

SARAH
But, I do need you to do something for me first.

CONAN
I'll do anything you ask.

SARAH
That's what I was hoping you'd say.

(Sarah presses a button on her desk which slams her office door shut and closes the blinds.)

CONAN
(Long confused pause)
Do you have a button under your desk that does that?

SARAH
I have a lot of pull here. So, anyway, about those things I need you to do.....

(Sarah stands up.)

CONAN
Like what?

(Cut to outside her office, where Conan comes flying through Sarah's window headfirst, shattering the glass. ME walks past right as he starts getting up.)

ME
Conan? You okay?

CONAN
You need me to host?

ME
Uhhhh, well,-

CONAN
I'll do it.

ME
Okay, thank you.

(Conan runs off, exit screen left. I look at Sarah standing in her office.)

ME
Did something weird happen in here, Sarah?

SARAH
I don't know what happened, I just asked him to take a sculpting class with me.

ME
Is that all you asked?

SARAH
(Awkward pause)
I might've insinuated that "sculpting" meant anal.

ME
(Longer awkward pause)
You were trying to get out of hosting the OYLs by sexually harassing Conan weren't you?

SARAH
Worked like a charm too.

(Me shakes his head at Sarah. Dissolve fade to panning of Awards Show crowd, Drumroll starts)

ANNOUNCER
Welcome to the 7th Annual ONE-YEAR-LATER AWARDS!

(AUDIENCE claps as award show music plays)

Ladies and Gentlemen, our host for the OYL Awards, Conan O'Brien)

(AUDIENCE claps louder as Conan O'Brien enters stage right and approaches center stage, in his usual goody manner, with the familiar Conan mannerisms, highlighted with his signature string dance)

CONAN
Thank you. Welcome to the 7th Annual One-Year-Later Awards, an award taking place in 2018, that was supposed to take place in 2017, honoring and remembering the best of 2016; in other words, Welcome to 6th Circle of Hell!

(Laughter from audience)

Oh man, these last couple years. Seriously, it's like every day we wake up and say, "Oh, what new sweet Hell is this?!" But that's enough about Melania's life.

(Mix of laughs and disgruntled ooohs)

I love how some of the audience is cheering and the other half is like, "Oh, that's funny, but that's mean!" I mean, we have to talk about Trump, we don't want to, but he's competition now. Did you hear this? Yeah, Trump announced that he would giving out his own "Fake News Awards".

(Audience boos)

Yeah, can you believe it, he's creating his own awards. Amazingly, Trump found a way to give fake, stupid made-up awards shows where only one person votes and determines the winner, and done on a blog that nobody reads, a bad name.

(Audience laughs)

It's amazing. It's the literal equivalent of the Bottom of the Barrel going, "Well, at least I ain't that."

(Audience, kinda chuckles, but not really)

Let's get to the movies, shall we? Yes, 'cause this is a made-up awards show, and we're honoring the best in cinema, and anything that's an escape from reality deserves to be rewarded. 2016, was an interesting year for film. Interesting year for award shows too...

(Audience chuckles)

The one big question everybody's asking about the OYLs, how the hell did "La La Land" not get into Best Picture? "La La Land" is nominated for 12 OYLs and somehow did not get into Best Picture! It's almost like, they were trying to make sure, that "La La Land"'s name, couldn't be written in that last envelope at the end.

(Audience laughs)

Yeah, they're never gonna live that down. Speaking of that though, "Moonlight" set the record, 13 OYL Award nominations, including a record, 4 actors, nominated for Best Supporting Actor!

(Audience begins clappins)

Yes, cheer them on.

(Audience laughs more, audience shows the nominated actors)

"Moonlight" is a story of the life of a young African-American youth as he deals with his troubled, complicated life, as well as his hidden homosexuality. Little Richard called it, the best biopic ever made of him.

(Audience boos and then cheers)

What is that. Ahhhh, and then yeah, yeah, yeah, alright we'll cheer that!

(Conan ducks in front of camera as audience laught. He then rises making scary face in front of camera, getting laughs)

It's no surprise this year, if there was a theme among the nominees, there were a bunch of multiple nominations and nominees. Among the over 300 individual nominees, there are 42 people tonight nominated for at least two OYL Awards, including nine people who are nominated against themselves in a category, including Min-hee Kim, who's up for Best Actress for both "The Handmaiden" and "Right Now, Wrong Then"! Congratulations for that.

(Audience cheers on MIN-HEE KIM, as Conan spots her in the crowd)

Where are you, congratulations. Is is "Kim Min-hee" or "Min-hee Kim"? It's Kim-, what is it?

MIN-HEE
(Barely audible from crowd)
Kim Min-Hee!

CONAN
Which is the-, if we call you "Kim" will you answer?

MIN-HEE
(Nods)
Yes.

CONAN
Min-Hee is your given name, so it's supposed to come second, but- what is it, your surname?

MIN-HEE
Family name!?

CONAN
Family name. I see.

(Min-Hee nods).

Yeah, forgive us, we never know what to call any of you.

(Audience laughs, Min-hee shrugs)

MIN-HEE
It's okay.

Do you have that problem with us? Cause they bring the movies from Asia here and sometimes they Americanize the names and sometimes they don't and either way, we can't tell which is the proper way to put them together.

(Audience laughs)

Am I "O'Brien-san Conan" over there or something?

(Audience laughs)

MIN-HEE
You're Coco.

CONAN
I'm "Coco" in Korea!

(Audience laughs louder. Conan laughs in astonishment.)

CONAN
Oh man, I'm never gonna live Coco down, am I? Anyway, let's get to the Awards, alright. Alright, to present the inaugural OYL Award for Best Makeup & Hairstyling, he's a 5-time OYL Award nominee, including a nominee tonight for his Voiceover work for "I Am Not Your Negro", and he's the ultimate badass; ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Samuel L. Jackson!

(Samuel L. Jackson enters stage left, to applause from the Crowd as Awards Theme Music plays as he approaches the nearest podium, the one on the left side of the stage. Music fades out as he approaches. Conan)

SAMUEL
It's a honor to present the One-Year-Later for Makeup. Some of you may have noticed, but I always strive to have, a little different a look, for each film I'm in, and that's all intentional, and that's all from the makeup. To me, in order to be a little someone different, I have to first, look like someone else, and from there, I get the characters. Trust me, actors couldn't do this as well as we do, without the amazing craft and skill of the makeup artists and hairstyers. There are nine nominees for Best Makeup and Hairstyling and they are...

(On the big screen that makes up the back wall of the stage, a video montage of the nominees with pre-recorded vocals from the presenters plays.)


BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Christine-Makeup: Amy L. Forsythe; Hairstyling: Elissa Ruminer and Amanda Miller
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them-Makeup & Hairstyling: Fae Hammong; Hairstyling: Khanh Trance, Alan Rouse and Sarah Westherburn
Florence Foster Jenkins-Makeup & Hairstyling: Daniel Phillips, Loulia Sheppard and J. Roy Helland
Hacksaw Ridge-Makeup & Hairstyling: Shane Thomas; Makeup: Larry Van Doynhoveen, Noriko Watanabe and Alice Baueris
La La Land-Makeup: Tosten White; Hairstyling: Barbara Lorenz, Frida Aradottir and Medusah
Nocturnal Animals-Makeup: Jason Collins, Donald Mowat and Elaine L. Offers; Hairstyling: Yolanda Toussieng
Silence-Makeup: Noriko Watanabe, Laura Calvo and Rachel Chen; Makeup & Hairstyling: Jennifer Lamphee
Star Trek Beyond-Makeup: Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo; Hairstyling: Khanh Trance
Suicide Squad-Makeup: Alessandro Bertolazzi, Christopher Allen Nelson, Pierce Austin, Sandra Wheatle and John Wheaton; Hairstyling: Giorgio Gregorini


 And the OYL Award goes to...

(Samuel opens envelope)

The team from "SUICIDE SQUAD". 

  
    



(Twenty-One Pilots' "Heathens" plays as six nominees, [Pictured from left-to-right in nomination order] stand up and head towards the stage as the audience applauds. One by one, they collect their awards from Samuel, who's collecting them from the handlers to the side as they walk up. One they get it, they turn to the crowd center stage. A couple of them hold their OYL up over their head with one hand as they quickly mutter "Thanks" before being escorted by Samuel to exit stage right.)

ANNOUNCER
One of last year's winners for Best Original Song for "Love You Like I Do" from "Fifty Shades of Grey", Tove Lo!

(TOVE LO enters stage left to applause and quickly heads towards the far left podium)

TOVE
The nominee for Best Original Song range wildly from modern hip hop to classical piano ballads to jazz to Broadway and includes artists ranging from classic rockers to experimental singer/songwriters to artists who got their starts on Youtube, and come from movies as wide-ranging as superhero movies to classic musicals, to hard-hitting documentaries. There are ten nominees the maximum, in the category for Best Original Song, and they are....


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Letter to the Free"; 13th-Music & Lyrics: Common; Music: Robert Glasper and Karriem Riggins
"Flicker"; Audrie & Daisy-Music & Lyrics: Tori Amos
"The Empty Chair"; Jim: The James Foley Story-Music & Lyrics: J. Ralph and Sting
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)"; La La Land-Music: Justin Hurwitz; Lyrics: Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
"Start a Fire"; La La Land-Music: Justin Hurwitz; Lyrics: Marius De Vries, Angelique Cinelu, Justin Paul; Music & Lyrics: John Legend
"How Far I'll Go"; Moana-Music & Lyrics: Lin-Manuel Miranda
"Something Wild"; Pete's Dragon-Music & Lyrics: Andrew McMahon and Lindsay Stirling
"Rules Don't Apply"; Rules Don't Apply-Music & Lyrics: Eddie Arkin and Lorraine Feather
"Drive It Like You Stole It"; Sing Street-Music & Lyrics: Gary Clark
"Heathens"-Suicide Squad-Music & Lyrics: Tyler Joseph


And the OYL Award goes to...

(Opens envelope)

"Drive It Like You Stole It", from "Sing Street", Music & Lyrics by Gary Clark. 

 

(Sing Street's "Drive It Like You Stole It" begins to play as Gary Clark stands up to a rousing ovation from the crowd.)

ANNOUNCER
This is Gary Clark's first win and nomination.

(He gets up to the stage and Tove hands him his OYL. He shakes her hand, thanks her, and turns to the audience for a moment as they continue to applaud. Tove then leads him to exit stage left.)

An OYL Award winner last year for Best Supporting Actor for "99 Homes", Michael Shannon!

(MICHAEL SHANNON enters stage right passing Gary and Tove as he enters the stage and approaches the far right podium.)

MICHAEL
An ex-wife getting on with her life, a longtime wife having to put up with her husband's philandering and violent behavior, a drug addict mother who's barely able to care for herself, a young single mother who deals with a daughter who unexpectedly runs off, a rancher who seeks out a romance with a new friend, a wild teenage girl who's not seeking a romance with her best friend, a leader of a magazine sales group that's run like a prostitution ring, a servant who may or may not be falling in love with her heiress master, a latest new girlfriend tag-along on an island getaway, and a former vacation who struggles to leave the revolutionary resistance after falling in love. Ten of the most complex and fascinating characters we've seen on our movie screens this year, played by ten of the most talented and versatile actresses working today. Here are the nominees for Best Supporting Actress:


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis-"Fences"
Elle Fanning-"20th Century Women"
Lily Gladstone-"Certain Women"
Naomie Harris-"Moonlight"
Dakota Johnson-"A Bigger Splash"
Riley Keough-"American Honey"
Tae-Ri Kim-"The Handmaiden"
Adriana Ugarte-"Julieta"
Rachel Weisz-"The Lobster"
Michelle Williams-"Manchester By the Sea"

(Applause is heard after each name is announced)

And the OYL Award goes to...

(Opens envelope. Slight pause.)

Hmm. Tae-Ri Kim, for "The Handmaiden". 


(Jo Yeong-wook's song, "The Duchess Juliette" plays as a surprised Tae-Ri Kim stands up and walks towards the stage, as the audience, also surprised applauds)

ANNOUNCER
This is the first nomination and win for Tae-Ri Kim. She is the first person to win an OYL Award for her feature-length debut performance.

(Tae-Ri Kim reaches the stage. Michael hands her the OYL, she bows slightly and shakes Michael's hand before turning to the crowd, who give her an ovation. Michael then guides her as they both exit stage right. Conan's back on stage, holding a small envelope)

CONAN
So, right here in my hand, is the next award, it's for the Best Costume Design, but before we give that out, of course, after the Oscar fiasco last year, when they got the envelopes, everybody's been wondering and waiting to see what the next show's gonna do to spoof the moment, when Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway got the wrong card. Well, this year, the OYL Awards have decided to take some actions to make sure that nothing like that will happen, and we're gonna detail this. So, just like the Oscars, there are two entrances to the stage, from the left and the right, so there are two envelopes for each award, that are handed out, usually before the presenters come out. I'll hand this one to Elle Fanning when she comes out, but normally that's how it works. Those envelopes are, like the Oscars handed out, by the accountants, and I know what you're thinking, "Wait, the OYLs have accountants?"

(Slight audience laugh)

Actually they do. We know when you scroll down to the bottom of these awards, and there's a tag about the "In-House Accountants" of the website, which doesn't sound like it make sense, 'cause why would someone's entertainment blog have in-house accountants, but "David Baruffi's Entertainment Views and Reviews" actually has two accountants on staff. They're normally backstage at this show, handing out the envelopes, but we're gonna introduce them here, they're Michele and William. Accountants come on out for a second!

(Entering stage right, MICHELE and WILLIAM, the website's accountants come out onstage, to some surprise from the audience and some applause.)

Yes, applaud them, they have a tough low-paying job and this is their first perk in seven years.

(Audience laughs)

Anyway, you two are the ones responsible for counting the votes and providing the envelopes, correct?

(William and Michele nod yes)

Okay, now beforehand, there was always two envelopes for every category, but this year, there is only one, Best Picture envelope, correct?

(William and Michele nod yes, again.)

Yes. You two can talk if you want by the way.

(Audience and William and Michele laugh)

MICHELE
Thank you.

CONAN
Well, you don't have to thank me for that-,

(Audience laughs)

(In deeper comic voice)
Yes, thank you Master Conan, for giving us the power to use our voices.

(Audience laughs some more, Conan switches back to normal voice)

Anyway, if you don't mind, can you two go and get the Best Picture envelope from the back, and bring it here, on stage.

WILLIAM
(Out-of-microphone range)
Sure.

CONAN
Okay, good.

(William and Michele exit stage right)

You see, what we're going to do, is put the single, one, Best Picture envelope, on stage now, and it's going to stay onstage for the entire show, and I guarantee you, there is no way, this envelope is gonna to be confused for any other envelope, and we'll show you why.
(Looks offscreen)
Do they have the envelope? Okay, they're bringing it out now.

(William and Michele enter stage right, carrying a Publihser's Clearing House check-size envelope. Conan goes to help them direct the envelope centerstage, where just in front of the big-screen back wall, is a small stand on the ground where all three of them place the huge envelope. The audience laughs as all three carefully place the envelope on the stand)

Can you get it in, and make sure it's in-, wow this is heavy. I thought it was just big, but it's heavy too. Anyway, thank you you two, give William and Michele a hand for the envelope, hey!

(Audience applauds as William and Michele wave as they exit stage right.)

As you can see, this is a pretty hard envelope to confuse with the others.

(Audience laugh)

It's as big as we could get. It's plain white, with plain black text, which, as you can see, very clear says, "BEST PICTURE"

         BEST                  PICTURE       
As you can see, it's that exact kind of black, that looks blue on your computer screen, but trust me, it's black!

(Audience laughs) 

It's that,- that black color, I forget the official name, black? Ennui Black? On computer screens black lettering looks blue, as they say. I guess something like that, I think.

(Audience still laughing, Conan laughing at himself as well) 

How has this damn blog lasted this long? 

(Audience laughs, as does Conan) 

Anyway., this envelope, will remain here, the entire night. It'll block a little bit of the big screen, we're aware, but, we are doing all this, to make sure, that nothing like what happened at the Oscars will happen here, and yes, it will be opened at the end of the night. So, here we go. 

(Audience laughs) 

On to our next presenter, a three-time OYL Award nominee, including a double-nominee tonight for Supporting Actress, ah, I'm sorry,

(Audience chuckles)

and as a member of the cast for "20th Century Women", ladies and gentleman, Elle Fanning!

(Awards show theme plays as ELLE FANNING enters stage left. Conan runs over and hands her the envelope he's been holding. She thanks him and then walks over to the left podium as Conan quietly exits stage right.) 

ELLE
I congratulated Tae-Ri, backstage. She's thrilled. Alright, let's get to it. Here are the ten nominees, the maximum for Best Costume Design. 


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied-Johanna Johnston
The Dressmaker-Marion Boyce and Margot Wilson
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them-Colleen Atwood
Florence Foster Jenkins-Consolata Boyle
Hail, Caesar!-Mary Zophres
The Handmaiden-Sang-gyeong Jo
Jackie-Madeleine Fontaine
La La Land-Mary Zophres
The Love Witch-Anna Biller
The Nice Guys-Kym Barrett

And the OYL Award goes to...

(Opens envelope) 

"LA LA LAND", Mary Zophres!


(Justin Hurwitz's "Another Day of Sun" plays as Mary Zophres gets up and starts walking to the stage to applause.)

ANNOUNCER
This is Mary Zophres's first win. She received her first two OYL Award nominations tonight as she was also nominated for the Costume Designs for "Hail, Caesar!"

(Mary gets up stage, and Elle hands her her OYL Award. She turns to the audience as they applaud. After a few moment, Elles guides her off, exiting stage right.)

ANNOUCER
A past OYL Award winner as a cast member of "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)" and a double nominee tonight for Best Actress and as a cast member for "La La Land", Emma Stone!

(EMMA STONE comes out, entering stage left, yelling over to the right side of the stage, motioning to Mary offstage, congratulating her for her win as she eventually gets half-way to the center of the stage before realizing that she's supposed to go to the left podium. She eventually remembers and hurriedly rushes over there.)

EMMA
(Slightly embarrassed)
Sorry, I was saying hi to Mary. Okay, I'm announcing the OYL Award for Best Cinematography, there are ten nominees this year, and they are.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival-Bradford Young
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk-John Toll
The Handmaiden-Chung-hoon Chung
Knight of Cups-Emmanuel Lubezki
La La Land-Linus Sandgren
The Love Witch-M. David Mullen
Moonlight-James Laxton
Nocturnal Animals-Seamus McGarvey
Silence-Rodrigo Prieto
Tanna-Bentley Dean

And the One-Year-Later Award goes to...

(Opens Envelope)

WOOOO! Linus Sandren, for "LA LA LAND"! YES!



(Justin Hurwitz's "Another Day of Sun" plays as Linus Sandgren stands up and heads towards the stage as the audience applauds)

ANNOUNCER
This is Linus Sandgren's first win and nomination.

(Emma hugs Linus as she presents him the OYL Award. Linus holds the award up proudly as he turns to the audience and thanks them. Emma then guides him off as they exit stage left.)

ANNOUNCER
A nominee tonight for Best Character Voiceover/Narration Voiceover or Alternative Performance for "Sing", Seth MacFarlane.

(SETH MACFARLANE enters stage right as he approaches the far-right podium)

SETH
Good Evening, Everyone. I'm here to present the OYL Award for Best Animated Feature. It's nice being back here, the last time I was here presenting this award, I had just hosted a show like this, and nobody seemed to like it.

(Audience chuckles)

So, they had me present this award out of pity. This time around, they decided to nominate me for my Voiceover work, which they didn't honor back then, but they nominated me for a movie that wasn't nominated anywhere else, here, at the Oscars, or pretty much anywhere....

(Audience laughs)

So, once again, I am here presenting an OYL Award, out of pity. It has to be, they know I'm not winning; I'm up against Mark Rylance, and nobody beats him.

(Audience laughs)

Where is he; is he here this time? There he is.

(They scan to MARK RYLANCE in the crowd)

How you doing, you great actor, you. How's it feel to be nominated in the same category with a douche like me?"

(Audience and Mark laugh)

Yeah, here you are, classing this place up, and here I am, bringing it all the way back down to where it belongs. It's so weird. Anyway, there are five wonderful nominees this year for Best Animated Feature; the award goes to the film's Director and Producer and the nominees are:


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Stings-Director/Producer: Travis Knight; Producer: Arianne Sutner
The Little Prince (aka Le Petit Prince)-Director: Mark Osborne; Producer: Dimitri Rassam, Aton Soumache and Alexis Vonarb
Moana-Directors: Ron Clements & John Musker; Co-Directors: Don Hall & Chris Williams; Producers: Osnat Shurer
My Life as a Zucchini-Director: Claude Barras; Producer: Marc Bonny, Armelle Glorennec, Pauline Gygax, Max Karli, Kate Merkt, and Mickel Merkt
The Red Turtle-Director: Michael Dudko de Wit; Producers: Pascal Cauchetexu, Vincent Maraval, Gregoire Sorlat,  Toshio Suzuki and Isao Takahata

So, be careful Conan, they can take it all away from you just like that.

(Audience laughs, pausing before opening the envelope)

And the OYL Award goes...

(Opens envelope)

"KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS"!



("Story Time" by Dario Marianelli plays as Travis Knight and Arianne Sutner stand up and begin heading towards the stage.)

ANNOUNCER
This is both Travis Knight and Arianne Sutner's second OYL Award nominations and their first wins. They were previously nominated in the same category for "ParaNorman".

 (Travis and Arianne get handed their OYLs from Seth and they then turn to the applauding audience. After a few moments, Seth guides them off the stage, exitiing stage left.)

An OYL Award winner for Best Actress for "Blue Valentine" and a five-time nominee overall, including a double-nominee tonight, for Supporting Actress and as a member of the cast for "Manchester By the Sea", Michelle Williams!

(MICHELLE WILLIAMS enters stage right and quickly approaches the right-side podium to a small ovation.)

MICHELLE
To this day, the art of Casting is still given the slight by many major awards, some not feeling that it's an skill or craft that's deserving of recognition. However as roles and characters in film become more complex and exact, finding the right parts for the right roles can literally make or break a movie and imagining other people in some of the roles cast in these ten nominated films, makes you realize just how difficult the practice can be. Whether it's having to seek out unknowns or collecting together a group of stars, Casting is an art, ant the OYLs are proud to recognize it. Here are the nominees for Best Casting.


BEST CASTING
20th Century Women-Mark Bennett and Laura Rosenthal
American Honey-Lucy Pardee and Jennifer Vendetti
Certain Women-Mark Bennett and Gayle Keller
Everybody Wants Some!!-Vicky Boone and Kim Davis-Wagner
Hell or High Water-Jo Edna Boldin and Richard Hicks
The Lobster-Jina Jay
Manchester By the Sea-Douglas Aibel
Moonlight-Yesi Ramirez
Silence-Ellen Lewis
Sing Street-Louise Kiely

And the OYL Award goes to...

(Opens envelope)

"Moonlight"! Casting by Yesi Ramirez!


(Nicholas Britell's "The Middle or the World" plays as YESI RAMIREZ stands up and gets up stage as the crowd applauds loudly.)

ANNOUNCER
This is Yesi Ramirez's first nomination and win!

(Michelle hands Yesi her award and she turns to the stage as the audience applauds. After a few moments, Michelle guides her backstage, exiting stage right. )

To announce Best Animated Feature a two-time OYL Award nominee, previously as a member of the cast of "Cloud Atlas" and this year as a Supporting Actor nominee for "Florence Foster Jenkins", Hugh Grant!

(Awards theme music plays as HUGH GRANT enters stage left and heads to the left-side podium. He waves nonchalantly as he acknowledges the applause from the crowd.)

HUGH
Thank you. When they announced the creation of the category, Best Character Voiceover, Best Narration Voiceover or Best Alternative Performance, they-eh, far and wide, to try to find the best possible person to present such an honor. Unfortunately they couldn't get Andy Serkis to come this year...-

(Audience laughs)

so, here I am. Presenting. Here are the eight nominees for the first ever Voiceover or Alternative Performance award.


BEST CHARACTER VOICEOVER, NARRATION VOICEOVER OR ALTERNATIVE PERFORMANCE
Jason Bateman-"Zootopia"
Auli'i Cravalho-"Moana"
Samuel L. Jackson-"I Am Not Your Negro"
Seth MacFarlane-"Sing"
Josephine McAdam-"Tower"
Mark Rylance-"The BFG"
Kate Lyn Sheil-"Kate Plays Christine"
Joanne Tucker-"Zero Days"

And the first ever recipient of this honor, goes to...

(Opens envelope)

Ah, yes, Seth was right, from one Brit to another, MARK RYLANCE for "THE BFG"!



(John Williams's "Sophie and the BFG" plays as Mark Rylance makes his way reluctantly on stage, as the audience gives him a standing ovation.)

ANNOUNCER
This is Mark Rylance's first win and third nomination. He was nominated last year for Supporting Actor for "Bridge of Spies", and with his nomination this year in Best Actor for "The BFG", he is the first person to be nominated twice for a singular performance award, for the same performance!

(Hugh graciously hands Mark the OYL shaking his hands as he hands it over. Mark turns to the audience, who's still standing and applauding. He tips his to them graciously while holding out the award, before him and Hugh calmly exit stage left.)

A double nominee tonight for Best Actress for both "The Handmaiden" and "Right Now, Wrong Then", Min-Hee Kim!

(Min-Hee Kim enters stage right and heads to the right-side podium, to mild applause that's partly for her and partly died down applause for Rylance.)

MIN-HEE
저는 Best Ensemble Performance 상을 수상했습니다. 이 상을받을 수있는 후보는 10 명이며, 영화의 전체적인 출연진에게 주어지는 영예입니다. 후보자는 다음과 같습니다.

(Translation from Korean)
I'm here to present the award for Best Ensemble Performance. There are ten nominees, the maximum for this award, and the honor is given to a film's entire credited cast. Here are the nominees: 


BEST ENSEMBLE PERFORMANCE
20th Century Women
A Bigger Splash
Certain Women
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Mountains May Depart
The Salesman
Silence

(In English)
And the award, it goes to,

(Opens Envelope)

The cast of "MOONLIGHT"!



(Nicholas Brittell's "The Middle of the World" plays as members of the cast of "Moonlight", led by their singular nominated actor stand up, congratulate each other happily and then head towards the stage.)

ANNOUNCER
"Moonlight"'s win for Ensemble Performance marks the first time since the category was separated into two, that both the award for Best Casting and the award for Best Ensemble Performance both went to the same movie!

(The cast of "Moonlight" that's present each receive their awards and turn to the audience who's applauding loudly. Min-hee, once she's finally finished handed out the awards, guides them offstage, exiting stage left. Enter stage right, Conan's on stage, holding a clicker device.)

CONAN
It's been a good awards show so far, hasn't it?

(Audience mildly reacts positively)

I'd say so. I mean, this could've been the People's Choice, so it can always be worst.

(Mild laughter)

But, you know what's not been great about the OYL Awards. It's been all the "For Your Consideration" ads for the OYLs.

(Audience laughs)

Just go with it, or else the bit doesn't work.

(Audience laughs)

But seriously though-,
(Slight pause, sigh)
yes, there's been plenty of marketing for the OYL Awards, and you know, it's a part of the business now, it's not going away, we might as well get used to it. That said though, some of the promotional material, they looked okay on the surface, but some of them seemed a bit peculiar if you looked really closely at them. So, now that the voting's completed, I thought I'd go back and show you some of the material and what I'm talking about on the big screen here.

(Conan clicks clicker, Big screen shows a promotional add for "Moonlight".)

See, it's got all the names and positions, it's a beautiful layout with the cast and the movie poster. This was a nice piece that was a common pop-up on some websites. It's nice ad, but if you look closely at this one strange thing at the bottom, it kinds a little weird.

(Conan click clicker, Image zooms in reveal small printed word.)

Yeah, it says there, "IF YOU DON'T VOTE FOR 'MOONLIGHT' YOU'RE BOTH A RACIST AND A HOMOPHOBE!"

(Audience laughs but also oohs heavily.)

I thought that a was little much, don't you think. A little too pressuring, right?
(Long pause)
Oh, strap-in they're getting worst from here.

(Audience laughs)

Yeah there was some weird things in the ads. Like, here,-

(Conan clicks clicker, Big screen shows image of "Fences" ad.)

This is a nice and wonderful advertisement for "Fences", wonderful movie, yeah?

(Audience slightly cheers)

Absolutely, Denzel's amazing, Viola of course. Great movie, and again, it looks like a nice ad, and then you look a little bit closer, and this little part is disturbing.

(Conan clicks clicker, image on big screen again zooms in on the fine print.)

And it says, "NOT VOTING FOR "FENCES" MEANS YOU'RE A RACIST, BUT IT WON'T MAKE YOU A HOMOPHOBE UNLIKE NOT VOTING FOR THAT "MOONLIGHT" MOVIE WOULD!"

(Audience laughs)

I don't think that was, good strategy in the long run. It just reminds everyone of "Moonlight".
(Long pause)
A little too aggressive and mean too. It's competitive.

(Conan clicks clicker, big screen shows advertisement for the movie "Sing")

Even the animated movies get into it a bit. He's a For Your Consideration advertisement for "Sing", and it's a decent advertisement, shows all the characters, it's a nice bright ad. But then you see this thing shoved right under the name.

(Conan clicks clicher, zooms in fine print)

"HEY, WE KEPT YOUR STUPID KIDS ENTERTAINED FOR AN HOUR AND A HALF WHILE YOU WERE GETTING HIGH IN YOUR BEDROOM, THAT SHOULD BE WORTH AN AWARD, RIGHT?!

(Audience laughing and some ahhing at that joke)

That's a little too direct I think. Too close to home, maybe.

(Conan clicks clicker, Big screen shows image of advertisement for "Zero Days".)

It's rough out there, even the documentaries were getting in on the act, somewhat. This is an advertisement for "Zero Days", the Alex Gibney documentary. Yeah, he's wonderful.

(Audience applauds)

It got a nomination in a category this year. Well-deserved, and this is a nice promotional material for it, but there is this weird part at the bottom here, let's get a shot at that.

(Conan clicks clicker to zoom in on advertisement)

It's says, "HELP! ALEX GIBNEY'S NOT A REAL PERSON, HE'S A EXPERIMENTAL DOCUMENTARY-MAKING ROBOT THAT BECAME SENTIENT AND HE'S BEEN RUNNING OUT-OF-CONTROL SINCE 1997! PLEASE HELP US REGAIN CONTROL OF OUR ROBOT BEFORE HE MAKES A DOCUMENTARY ABOUT YOU!"

(Audience laughs loudly.)

That- that seems a bit odd. It would explain a lot though. He does put out a lot of movies, doesn't he?

(Audiences laughin dies down slowly. Conan clicks clicker, Big screen now shows an advertisement for "The Handmaiden")

Here's a love advertisement for "The Handmaiden", the great South Korean movie-

(Audience cheers slightly)

Absolutely, wonderful film. They have a ton of nominations tonight, so these ads obviously worked. I'm a little surprised that this made the advertising cut. I guess was to promote the country as well.

(Conan clicks clicker, zooms in on advertisement.)

It's says, "SOUTH KOREAN FILM. SOUTH KOREA: THE SEXIEST KOREA"!

(Audience laughs, some random cheers from the audience. Conan acknowledges one of them.)

Yes, I totally agree, it is the sexier Korea, but it still seem like a weird thing to put in a For Your Consideration advertisement.

(Conan clicks clicker, big screen now shows advertisement for "The Mermaid")

And finally, here's an online advertisement for "Jackie", the wonderful Jackie Onassis biopic. Wonderful film, absolutely, and this is a good advertisement, but I think this part here, might have cost them some nominations.

(Conan clicks clicker, zooms in on advertisement)

It says, "VOTE FOR JACKIE! CAUSE IF YOU VOTE FOR "MOONLIGHT" THE GHOST OF JOHN F. KENNEDY WILL COME AND HAUNT YOU AND HYPNOTIZE YOUR FAMILY INTO THINKING YOUR A ZOMBIE AND THEY'LL TRY TO KILL YOU! THIS IS REAL, HE WILL HAUNT YOU, THIS IS REAL, AND NOT SOMETHING THAT THE "LA LA LAND" PEOPLE HELD US AT GUNPOINT TO SAY!"

(Audience laughs)

That's a bit much. See, the campaigns were-eh, really kinda out there this year.

(Awkward pause as audience laughter dies down)

To present the award for Best Production Design, past OYL Award winner as a member of the cast of "Lincoln" as well as a nominee for the cast of "Inside Llewyn Davis" and he's a double nominee this year as a member of the cast of "Silence" and for Lead Actor for "Paterson", and somehow everybody only knows him from "Star Wars", ladies and gentlemen, Adam Driver!

(ADAM DRIVER enters stage left and approaches the far left podium to loads of applause and Conan quietly exits stage right.)

ADAM DRIVER
As one who pretends to be other people all the time, I can imagine being in a completely different world, but that does make you more impressed with the people who's jobs it is to create create a world entirely. That is the job of production designers and set decorators nominated for the category of Best Production Design. There are ten nominees, the maximum, in the category this year, and they are:


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival-Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoratior: Paul Hotte
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them-Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
Hail, Caesar!-Production Design: Jess Gonchar; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
The Handmaiden-Production Design: Seong-hie Ryu
La La Land-Production Design: David Wasco; Set Decoration: Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
The Love Witch-Production Design and Set Decoration: Anna Biller
The Mermaid-Production Design: Bruce Yu
Nocturnal Animals-Production Design: Shane Valentino; Set Decoration: Meg Everist
Passengers-Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set Decoration: Gene Serdana
Silence-Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo

And the OYL Award goes to...

(Opens Envelope)

"The Love Witch", Anna Biller!



(ANNA BILLER's "Love is a Magical Thing" plays as a surprised Anna slowly stands up and walks to the stage.)

ANNOUNCER
This is Anna Biller's first win and second nomination. She was nominated earlier in the night for Costume Design, also for "The Love Witch".

(The audience finally starts clapping after being caught off-guard by the win. Adam hands her the award and Anna then turn to the audience, somewhat flustered by the shock. Adam then guides her backstage, exiting stage right.)

A six-time nominee who's nominated twice tonight for Best Actor and as a Cast Member of "La La Land" Ryan Gosling!

(RYAN GOSLING enters stage left to loud applause as he heads towards the far left podium.)

RYAN
Alexander Payne one said that after all the writing,  setting up lighting, building with sets, casting and working with all the actors and shooting all the scenes, to paraphrase, "It's such a relief to be in the edition room, 'cause it's where you finally get to make a movie. There are ten nominees, the maximum, this year for Best Editing, they are the ones who finally made the finished movie. The nominees are:


BEST EDITING
Arrival-Joe Walker
Cameraperson-Neils Bangerter; Co-Editor: Amanda Laws
Deadpool-Julian Clarke
Hooligan Sparrow-Nanfu Wang
Jason Bourne-Christopher Rouse
La La Land-Tom Cross
Moonlight-Joi McMillon & Nat Sanders
Silence-Thelma Schoonmaker
Sing Street-Andrew Marcus and Julian Ulriche
Tower-Austin Reedy

And the OYL Award goes to-

(Ryan opens envelope. He pauses and looks somewhat taken aback by the envelope.)

Whoa. "Tower", Austin Reedy!



(After a slight delay, Lord Buffalo's "Face in the Grass" plays as AUSTIN REEDY, slowly stands up at near the back of the nominees section of the auditorium with a shocked expression on his face as he starts a long trek down the aisle and towards the stage.)

ANNOUNCER
This is Austin Reedy's first win and nomination. This marks only the second time a documentary has won an OYL Award in a category other than Best Documentary, both times they won in Best Editing category.

(Austin finally makes it to the stage and Ryan hands the OYL, congratulating him and shaking his hand after he hands it to him. Austin turns to the audience. He shrugs and holds up his OYL as he motions to towards some of the other "Tower" representatives and nominees. Ryan then guides him off, exiting stage right)

To present the Best Documentary Award, two former OYL Awards nominees in the category, for Producing and Directing "Tim's Vermeer", respectively; Penn Jillette, and Teller!

(PENN & TELLER enter stage left and head towards the center stage. Tell brings with him a large briefcast that unfolds into a table.)

PENN
Hi, I'm Penn and this is my partner Teller. We're proud to announce the OYL Award for Best Documentary.

(Teller holds up a small envelope)

Now, we love documentaries, in film and television, we've made several of them, we love watching them, especially all of tonight's nominees, but admittedly, giving out an award for a Documentary, and giving out awards in general, well, it's a little-eh, like some documentaries quite boring. So, we decided that we were going to do a card trick for you.

(Teller takes out a deck of cards, unpacks them from the decks and begins to shuffle them)

Now a card trick, they're also a bit lacking in excitement and drama, so in order to compensate for that, we've kidnapped and tied up Conan, and placed him in a giant dunk tank filled with water, and placed on him a giant pair of goggles covering 2/3 of his face.

(Penn walks stage right and rolls out a dunk tank filled with water where Conan is tied up and locked inside and places it center stage.)

See, there he is, and don't worry, he's fully capable of breathing, 'cause of this airtube that's running out of the top, as you can plainly see, ain't that right Conan? Everything cool?

(Penn knocks on glass of water tank.)

CONAN
(Voice muttled from water)
Fuck you guys!

PENN
He'll be fine in there.

(Audience laughs)

Now, I'm going to go down to the audience.

(Penn takes the cards from Teller, and steps down from the stage and into the audience.)

Eh, let's see, who would like to pick a card? Oh, hello, Auli'i, is that how it's pronounced?

(AULI'I CRAVALHO nods yes)

Auli'i Cravalho, everyone! The voice of "Moana'! Give her a round of applause.

(Audience starts to cheer as Penn fans out the cards.)

So, here, you pick a card.

(Auli'i picks a card)

Don't tell me what it is, just show the camera over there, I'll look away.

(Penn looks away as Auli'i shows the three of clubs)

Okay, now put it back into the deck, and Teller will find this card of yours, okay.

(Penn starts shuffling the deck)

AULI'I
Okay.

PENN
Good.

(Penn climbs back onto the stage, still shuffling as he goes.)

Now, after I hand these to Teller, and he does some mysterious voodoo magic of his to find your cards, I will take out the air-hose in Conan's tank, and the video package of the nominees will play, and afterwards, we will find your card and announce the winner. So, everything okay Conan?

CONAN
(Waterlogged)
You two are assholes!

PENN
Way to be a good sport Conan.

(Penn grabs the top of Conan's head and turns him around so that he's facing the big screen)

Now, let's turn you around in case something happens, we don't want to scar anybody accidentally.

(Audience laughs, Penn unlocks the hose and the nominee package begins to play)


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
13th-Director: Ava DeVernay; Producers: Spencer Haverick and Howard Barrish
Author: The JT Leroy Story-Dir.: Jeff Feuerzeig; Producers: Jim Czarnecki, Danny Gabai, Brett Ratner and Molly Thompson
Cameraperson-Director/Producer: Kirsten Johnson; Producer: Marilyn Ness
City of Gold-Director/Producer: Laura Gabbert; Producer: Braxton Pope
Eat That Question: Frank Zappa in his Own Words-Director: Thomas Schutte; Producers: Estelle Fialon
Holy Hell-Director/Producer: Will Allen; Producers: Tracy Harnish and Alexandra Johness
Hooligan Sparrow-Director/Producer: Nanfu Wang
Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World-Director/Producer: Werner Herzog; Producer: Rupert McConick
O.J.: Made in America-Director/Producer: Ezra Edelman; Producers: Deirdre Fenton, Libby Geist, Nina Krstic, Erin Leyden, Tamara Rosenberg, Connor Schell and Caroline Waterlow
Tower-Director: Keith Maitland, Producers: Megan Gilbride and Susan P. Thompson

(Teller finishes waving a magic wand over the decks of cards)

Okay, and with one last wave of the wand, and...

(Teller pulls a card. Penn shows it.)

Nine of hearts, was that your card, Auli'i?!

AULI'I
(Shakes head no)
No.

PENN
That's not it? Okay, hold on, one last shuffle.

(Teller shuffles cards, pulls out another card.)

King of spades, that was your right?

(Auli'i shakes her head no, again. Audience laughs nervously. Penn, finds another card.)

Ten of hearts, was that it?

(Auli'i shakes her head no. Audience laughs again.)

Okay, um, well, find the card in a  second, let's just open the envelope. And the OYL Award goes to.

(Teller opens the envelope and hands Penn the card inside.)

"Three of Clubs", is that a movie? No, that's your card!

(Audience laughs, Auli'i smiles nod yes)

Yes, yes! We found the card. Okay, let's go revive Conan before he goes brain dead.

(Penn turns back on Conan's airhose.)

Conan, you alright?

(Penn knocks on the glass)

Hey, we found the playing card, but we lost the envelope card; we don't know who won, do you know. Conan?

(Penn grabs Conan's head from the top of the tank and turns him so that he's facing the audience. On his goggles, is a card that reads the winner.)

There it is! And the OYL goes to  "HOOLIGAN SPARROW"! Nanfu Wang. 


(Nathan Halpern and Chris Ruggiero score for "Hooligan Sparrow" plays as NANFU WANG makes her way to the stage amid loud applause.)

ANNOUNCER
This is Nanfu Wang's first win, and one of three nominations she has tonight, including a nomination for Best Editing and a nomination for Best Director all for "Hooligan Sparrow"!

(Nanfu walks up the stage and Teller hands her the OYL Award and both Penn and Teller shake her hand. Nanfu then turns to the applauding audience for a few moments. Teller guides her to the exit, stage left while Penn rolls Conan and the water tank back off stage.)

A three-time OYL Award nominee, including a nominee tonight as a cast member of "20th Century Women" and last year's OYL Award Winner for Best Supporting Actress, Greta Gerwig!

(GRETA GERWIG enters stage left passing Teller and Nanfu as she heads to the left-side podium to a rousing ovation)

GRETA
A son who constantly tries to impress and befriend his father, a husband who will go to extreme lengths to care for his wife, a Governor who will go to extreme lengths for his kingdom, a young kid who struggle with his identity while living under the worst of circumstances, a drug dealer who becomes the closest thing he has to a father figure, and his best friend who tenderly befriends him, a teenager who struggles with grief and living with an uncle who's even more-grief-stricken than he is,  a charming tour guide who can't be trusted despite his devotion to his faith, and a music promoter who is the last person any of his friend want stopping by on their island vacation. These nine characters, played by ten different actors make up one of the most diverse groups of great Supporting Actor performances ever made. Here are the nominees for Best Supporting Actor:


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jovan Adepo-"Fences"
Mahershala Ali-"Moonlight"
Ralph Fiennes-"A Bigger Splash"
Hugh Grant-"Florence Foster Jenkins"
Lucas Hedges-"Manchester By the Sea"
Alex R. Hibbert-"Moonlight"
Andre Holland-"Moonlight"
Jharrel Jerome-"Moonlight"
Yosuke Kubozuka-"Silence"
Issey Ogata-"Silence"

And the OYL goes to.

(Opens envelope, smiles)

MAHERSHALA ALI, "Moonlight".



(Nicholas Britell's "The Middle or the World" plays as MAHERSHALA ALI stands up and heads to the stage as the audience applauds loudly)

ANNOUNCER
This is Mahershala Ali's third nomination tonight and his second win. He was nominated as a Cast Member for "Hidden Figures" and he earliest won as a Cast Member for "Moonlight"!

(By the time Greta hands Mahershala his OYL, he is given a standing ovation by the applauding audiences. He quickly motions to them waving his hand slightly in acknowledgement acknowledement and then Greta guides him off stage, exiting stage left.)

To announce Best Foreign Language film, a nominee tonight for Best Actress for "Margarita with a Straw", Kalki Koechlin!

(KALKI KOECHLIN enters stage right and walks towards the right-side podium as the audience applause.)

KALKI
The Best Foreign Language Feature category spreads three continents, eight countries and three continents and tells stories in almost every genre and narrative as possible. From a story of a mother searching for her daughter, to the lives of three people who connect and reconnect in three different time periods, to personal drama of home invasions, some realistic and brutally shocking, some horrifically nightmarish, to stories of daughters struggling to move on and escape to start a new life, one trying to escape marriage, one trying to escape a petulant actor father, and a story of a day and night in Suwon told from two different perspective to, a guy falling in love with a-eh, a half-fish,

(Slight audience laughter, Kalki shrugs, gets more laughter from the audience)

to even a tale, about the messy and deadly struggle of cleaning up a country after it's been ravaged by war. The award is given to the film's director; here are the nominees for Best Foreign Language film:


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Handmaiden-Chan-wook Park (South Korea)
Ixcanul (aka Volcano)-Jayro Bustamante (Guatemala)
Julieta-Pedro Almodovar (Spain)
Land of Mine-Martin Vandvliet (Denmark)
The Mermaid-Stephen Chow (People's Republic of China)
Mountain May Depart-Zhangke Jia (People's Republic of China")
Right Now, Wrong Then-Sang-soo Hong (South Korea)
The Salesman-Asghar Farhadi (Iran)
Toni Erdmann-Maren Ade (Germany)
Under the Shadow-Babak Anvari (United Kingdom)

And the OYL Award goes to

(Opens envelope)

"MOUNTAINS MAY DEPART"! Director Zhangke Jia, from China. 



(The Pet Shop Boys "Go West" plays as ZHANGKE JIA stands up and heads to the stage, to a loud, appreciative applause)

ANNOUNCER
This is Zhangke Jia's first OYL Award win, and his including nomination tonight for Original Screenplay, Director and Best Picture all for "Mountains May Depart", his eighth nomination. He was previously nominated in Foreign Language Film, Director, Original Screenplay and as an Executive Producer for Best Casting Ensemble, all for "A Touch of Sin". This marks the first time a film from China has won the Best Foreign Language Film OYL Award.

(Kalki hands Zhangke the OYL and he turns to the audience in recognition. Kalki then leads him off-stage exiting stage left.)

Last year's OYL Award winner for Best Original Screenplay for "Trainwreck", Amy Schumer!

(AMY SCHUMER enters stage right and approaches the right-side podium to audience applause)

AMY
It's one thing to be inspired by other people's great work, it's another to take that work and becomes inspired enough by it to retell it into something that's completely your own. In this case, it could be from a novel or a short story, or several short stories, even poetry, even other films, and even taking their own work and twisting it into something new. The nine nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay, managed to pull this skill off enough to make us see why they so admired the original work in the first place. Here are the nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay:


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival-Eric Heisserer
A Bigger Splash-David Kajganich
Certain Women-Kelly Reichardt
Fences-August Wilson
The Handmaiden-Seo-kyeong Jeong and Chan-wook Park
Moonlight-Barry Jenkins; Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney
Nocturnal Animals-Tom Ford
Paterson-Jim Jarmusch
Silence-Jay Cocks & Martin Scorsese

I know, you were all expecting a dick joke weren't you?

(Audience slightly laughs)

Nah, I wouldn't do that here.

(Opens envelope)

And the OYL goes to Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney for "Moonlight"!



(Nicholas Britell's "The Middle or the World" plays as BARRY JENKINS and TARELL ALVIN MCCRANEY stand up and walk up to the stage as the audience applauds.)

ANNOUNCER
This is both Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney's first wins and nominations. Jenkins is also nominated tonight for Best Director for "Moonlight". Tarell Alvin McCraney has become the first person to win the Adapted Screenplay award for adapting his own work.

(Amy hands Barry and Tarell their OYLs and they proud turn to the applauding audience, smiling happily. Barry gives Tarell a frienly pat on the back as Amy leads them offstage, exiting stage left.)

ANNOUNCER
A nominee last year for Directing and one of last year's winners for Best Original Screenplay for "The Big Short", Adam McKay!

(ADAM McKAY enters stage right to applause as he heads to the right side podium)

ADAM MCKAY
The OYL Award for Best Original Screenplay tells stories that range from fantasy to musical to dark comedy to horror to tragedy to personal drama to teenage melodrama to-eh, dark romance-comedy even. That's what we're calling "The Lobster" that's the closest we came to a genre for that one.

(Audience chuckles)

These are ten, the maximum, totally original stories told in unique and distinctive ways. Here are the nominees for Best Original Screenplay:


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Edge of Seventeen-Kelly Fremon Craig
Kubo and the Two Strings-Screenplay by Marc Haimes and Chris Butler; Story by Shannon Tindle and Marc Haimes
La La Land-Damien Chazelle
The Lobster-Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimos Filippou
Manchester By the Sea-Kenneth Lonergan
Mountains May Depart-Zhangke Jia
The Salesman-Asghar Farhadi
Sing Street-Story and Screenplay by John Carney; Story by Simon Carmody
Toni Erdmann-Maren Ade
Under the Shadow-Babok Anvari

And the OYL Award goes to,

(Opens envelope)

"Mountains May Depart", Zhangke Jia!



(The Pet Shop Boys "Go West" plays as the audience applauds. Zhangke Jia, surprised, quickly emerges, entering stage left, still holding his Foreign Language Feature OYL Award from earlier. Adam meets him halfway to present him with his second OYL. Zhangke turns to the audience, who give him a standing ovation as he holds up the two OYLs. Adam eventually leads him offstage, exiting stage right. Conan returns, entering stage right, annoyed, pissed off, his hair folded down from the water and wearing a robe and slippers and holding a mug full of coffee. Audience laughs.)

CONAN
It's not funny! What the hell with this show, last year I was humped by Will Ferrell in a g-string and this year, Penn & Teller try to drown me!

(Audience laugh)

I guarantee you, this would never have happened if Sarah was hosting.

(Audience laughs harder)

(Imitating mock snobbery voice)
"Noooo, it wouldn't be right to treat Sarah Silverman that way, but we can do anything we want to Conan!
(Mock evil laughter)

(Audience laughs)

They said the clothes will be dry by the end of the night. Alright, to present the award for Best Actor, a two-time nominees both as a Cast Member and as last winner of the Best Actress OYL Award for "The Diary of a Teenage Girl", Bel Powley!

(Awards theme music plays as BEL POWLEY enters stage left and heads to the left-side podium as Conan slumbers off, exiting stage right while sipping his coffee.)

BEL
There's the musicians who strives to achieve big dreams, there's the poet who just like to experience life as it happen, there a priest who wonders if his faith will bring more harm than good, there's a father who's trying to forget the sadness in his past, there's another father who will make sure everyone's tortured in the present, and another who finds his own unique way of trying to take care of his family, another father who's trying to get stay in his daughter's life, there's a giant who suddenly has to take care of a little girl, there's a young man who's still struggling with finding himself, and a filmmaker who's seeking out inspiration one night in someone younger. Ten actors have given us ten amazing character who seem bigger than life, but struggle with the basic problems of living. Here are the nominees for Best Actor


BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck-"Manchester By the Sea"
Adam Driver-"Paterson"
Andrew Garfield-"Silence"
Ryan Gosling-"La La Land"
Jaw-young Jeong-"Right Now, Wrong Then"
Viggo Mortensen-"Captain Fantastic"
Trevante Rhodes-"Moonlight"
Mark Rylance-"The BFG"
Peter Simonischek-"Toni Erdmann"
Denzel Washington-"Fences"

And the OYL Award goes to

(Opens envelope, smiles)

DENZEL WASHINGTON!



(Marcelo Varvas's "Fences" plays as DENZEL WASHINGTON, trying hard to be humble, stands up and walks up to the stage as the audience erupts in applause)

ANNOUNCER
This is Denzel Washington's first win and one his first two nominations tonight. He is also nominated as a Producer for "Fences". After Clark Gregg's win for "Trust Me" Washington is the second person to direct himself to an OYL-Award winning performance.

(Bel hands Denzel the OYL and Denzel shakes her hand as he turns to the audience and holds up his award. The audience cheering has turned into a standing ovation. After a few moments he Bel leads him off stage exiting stage left.)

Last year's OYL Award winner for Best Actor for "The Voices", Ryan Reynolds!

(RYAN REYNOLDS passes Bel and Denzel as he enters stage left and walks toward the left-side podium to applause.)

RYAN
One woman dreams to someday be an actress and succeeds, another dreams of being a singer, and she fails, one local student has a memorable night with a film director, another student travels across the world and hopes that she's found love, one mother hopes to protect her family as war surrounds them physically and literally, one uses all her skills in order to escape to freedom from being a wife, one daughter is just trying to get away from her father, one teacher believes that a past love might be reincarnated as one of her students, one woman is a First Lady of the United States and another woman, is trying to talk to aliens from outer space. These nine actresses have brought to life ten amazing, varied and spectacular women. Here are the nominees for Best Actress:


BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams-"Arrival"
Sandra Huller-"Toni Erdmann"
Min-hee Kim-"The Handmaiden"
Min-hee Kim-"Right Now, Wrong Then"
Kalki Koechlin-"Margarita with a Straw"
Natalie Portman-"Jackie"
Narges Rashidi-"Under the Shadow"
Emma Stone-"La La Land"
Meryl Streep-"Florence Foster Jenkins"
Tao Zhao-"Mountains May Depart"

And the OYL Award goes to,

(Opens envelope)

Natalie Portman, for "Jackie"!



(Mica Levi's "The End" plays as NATALIE PORTMAN gets up and heads towards the stage, receiving a loud applause as she does.)

ANNOUNCER
This is Natalie Portman's second nomination and first win. She previously nominated in this category for "Black Swan"!

(Ryan hands Natalie her award and she turns to the audience center stage to a rousing ovation. She smiles slyly for a few moments before Ryan guides her off-stage and they exit stage left.)

A 3-time, OYL Award nominee last year, including last year's Best Director OYL Award winner for "Mad Max: Fury Road", George Miller!

(GEORGE MILLER enters stage right to applause and heads towards the right side podium)

GEORGE
There are ten nominees this year, the maximum, in the category of Best Director, here are the nominees:


BEST DIRECTOR
Maren Ade-"Toni Erdmann"
Damien Chazelle-"La La Land"
Jim Jarmusch-"Paterson"
Barry Jenkins-"Moonlight"
Zhangke Jia-"Mountains May Depart"
Pablo Larrain-"Jackie"
Chan-wook Park-"The Handmaiden"
Martin Scorsese-"Silence"
Denis Villeneuve-"Arrival"
Nanfu Wang-"Hooligan Sparrow"

And the Award goes to:

(Opens envelope slowly.)

Barry Jenkins, "Moonlight"!



(Nicholas Britell's "The Middle or the World" plays as Barry Jenkins gets up a second time from the audience having just returned from backstage and begins to climb up to the stage, accompanied by applause)

ANNOUNCER
This is Barry Jenkins's second win and nomination tonight for "Moonlight".

(Barry and George hug each other quickly as George gives Barry his OYL. Barry turns see the audience cheering, and he tries somewhat successful to hold off on some giving another standing ovation. George then leads Barry off as they exit stage left. Conan comes out entering stage right and heads to center stage, he's returned to wearing a suit and seems to have dried off.)

CONAN
Alright, I'm dried off, suit's clean, and one giant envelope left to open.

(Conan pulls out a couple pairs of boxcutters. Audience laughs.)

Ladies and gentlemen, Meryl Streep!

(MERYL STREEP enters stage left to a standing applause as she head to left side podium)

MERYL
Thank you, thank you. There are ten nominees for Best Picture, and here they are:


BEST PICTURE
Arrival-Producers: Dan Levine, Shawn Levy, David Linde and Aaron Ryder
Fences-Producers: Todd Black, Scott Rudin and Denzel Washington
The Handmaiden-Producers: Syd Lim and Chan-wook Park
Jackie-Producers: Darren Aronofsky, Scott Franklin, Ari Handel, Jean de Dios Larrain and Mickey Liddell
The Mermaid-Producers: Ivy "Y.Y." Kong and Stephen Chow
Moonlight-Producers: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Adele Romanski
Mountains May Depart-Producers: Shozo Ichiyama, Zhangke Jia, Nathanael Karmitz, Shiyu Liu and Zhong-Lun Ren
Paterson-Producers: Joshua Astrachan and Carter Logan
Silence-Producers: Vittorio Cecchi Gori, Barbara De Fina, Randall Emmett, David Lee, Gaston Pavlovich, Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger and Irwin Winkler
Toni Erdmann-Producers: Maren Ade, Jonas Dornbach, Janine Jackowski and Michel Merkt

(Meryl looks over at the "BEST PICTURE" envelope awkwardly. Audience chuckles)

(Unsuredly)
And the OYL Award goes to...

(Conan comes out and hands Meryl a pair of boxcutters)

Thank you.

CONAN
You want to do the honors?

MERYL
Absolutely.

(Meryl and Conan walks to the Best Picture envelope. Meryl adjusts her boxcutters and starts cutting from the far left corner, and cutting downward. Conan starts wildly cutting on the right side horizontally)

MERYL
Should I keep cutting or-

CONAN
Just tear at it, go wild.

(Conan starts ripping wildly, only cutting part of the envelope despite the effort. Audience laughs. Meryl then cuts with the boxcutters horizontallly

MERYL
I think you gotta do vertically and horizontally, to get a clean.

CONAN
Well, yeah if you're gonna cut giant envelope the proper way, sure.

(Meryl laughs as does the audience as Conan tears at his end wildly, finally reveal part of the card in the envelope, causing some applause. Meryl tears up her side fairly cleanly as Conan goes with two hands, pulling and throwing shreds of the envelope onto the stage, creating a mess.)

MERYL
Careful not to let it fall over.

CONAN
Oh, okay.

(Conan switches to ripping the envelope more cleanly and properly getting a mild laugh, Finally, one last big piece is taken off, fulling revealing what the audience was able to read for a minute or so.

                                MOONLIGHT                                  

MERYL
The OYL Award goes to "MOONLIGHT"!





(Nicholas Britell's "The Middle or the World" plays as DEDE GARDNER, JEREMY KLEINER AND ADELE ROMANSKI stand up and walk up stage to a rousing ovation. )

ANNOUNCER
This is Dede Gardner's third win and nomination, and Jeremy Kleiner's second win and nomination and both Dede and Jeremy have won in this category in consecutive years. Dede and Jeremy won as producers for "The Big Short" and Dede won her first OYL Award as a Producer for "The Tree of Life". This is Adele Romanski's first win and first nomination. With this, it's sixth win tonight, "Moonlight" has broken the record set by "Mad Max: Fury Road" for most OYL Awards by a movie.

(The three collect their awards from Meryl and turn to the cheering, standing crowd. After a few elongated moments, Barry Jenkins enters from stage right to join them right as Meryl is guiding them off-stage. They all hug as cheer as they exit stage right. Conan is placed center stage.)

CONAN
Alright, we gotta clean this up, Everyone. That's our show, goodnight.

(Awards show theme song plays and the end credits begin to roll as the audience slowly starts to being filing out)

ANNOUNCER
All votes are tabulations are done by the in-house accountants at "David Baruffi's Entertainment Views and Reviews". The results of those tabulations are kept secret, (At least that's what supposed to happen, William! Michele!)
(Frustrated sigh)
 and they remain secret until the envelopes are opened on the night of the Awards.
(Pause)

Gift baskets are provided by:

[Commercials air for: ACT Mouthwash, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu, Sirius XM Radio, MaddyGTV: Late Night, Hustler Hollywood, AMC Theaters, 7-11, Chef Flemming's Bake Shop, Goodfellas Bail Bonds, Cirque Du Soleil, Omnia Nightclub at Caesar's Palace Hotel-Casino, Frederick's of Hollywood, Forever 21, Avacados from Mexico, Suntory Times Whiskey, and the NFL on NBC.)

LAWYER'S NOTE: "David Baruffi's Entertainment Views & Reviews" denies all knowledge and existence of "The One-Year-Later Awards" and disputes any/all claims or any improprieties, illegal and otherwise involving them, including but not limited to the crimes of excessive bribery, racketeering, blackmail, sodomy, tortures involving the lethal use of a Michael Bay movie, stealing of famous landmarks while leaving geographically inquisitive clues to ACME detectives, stealing of legendary and important artifacts and using of a hidden temple to hide them in, working in the film industry over the age of thirty, living with your parents over the age of twenty-five, use a magic prop or contraption in an attempt to drown an awards show host, and/or being connected with the Church of Scientology.

The OYL Awards is a "David Baruffi's Entertainment Views and Reviews" Production.
In association with Midnight Green Studios.

Distributed by UBU Productions.






IN MEMORIAM

August Wilson (1945-2005)
OYL AWARD NOMINEE-Best Adapted Screenplay-"Fences"